Coinbase Q4 2025 Earnings Face a Crossroads: 73% Beat Odds Collide With a 65% Stock Plunge

73% Beat Odds Meet a Battered Stock Price

Coinbase Global (COIN) reports its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results on Thursday, February 12, after market close. The timing could not be more charged. According to WatcherGuru, prediction odds of Coinbase beating quarterly earnings have surged to 73%, a figure that sits in stark contrast to a stock that has lost roughly 65% of its value from its record high near $450.

The company confirmed the February 12 earnings date with a shareholder webcast scheduled for 2:30 PM PT. With COIN trading around $166, investors are facing a rare disconnect: high beat probability and historically depressed valuation, all while crypto markets reel from a $500 billion drawdown since January 29.

Wall Street is Split Down the Middle

Analyst consensus reveals a fractured outlook. On one side, Citigroup slashed its Coinbase price target from $505 to $400 on February 6, citing weaker trading volumes, softer institutional activity, and ongoing uncertainty around U.S. crypto legislation timing. Citi trimmed its Q4 net revenue forecast by approximately 10% to $1.69 billion, about 4% below consensus. The bank also projects a GAAP EPS loss of $2.64 after factoring in a $2.3 billion mark-to-market decline on crypto holdings.

On the other side, the broader analyst community remains surprisingly bullish. Across 26 analysts tracked by MarketBeat, the consensus rating sits at "Buy" with an average price target of $373.67, implying 155% upside from current levels. The range spans from $205 at the bearish end to $510 at the top. That is an extraordinary spread for a company of this size, and it reflects genuine uncertainty about where crypto markets and Coinbase's business model are headed.

The consensus revenue estimate for Q4 hovers around $1.86 billion, with EPS expectations ranging from $0.83 to $1.39 depending on the source. Revenue would be down roughly 18% year-over-year from the blockbuster Q4 2024 that saw $2.27 billion in revenue on the back of a post-election crypto rally.

Revenue Diversification Tells the Deeper Story

The raw earnings numbers matter, but the composition of revenue may be the more important signal. In Q3 2025, Coinbase's transaction revenue showed a notable shift away from Bitcoin, which fell to 24% of transaction revenue versus 35% in Q3 2024. XRP now accounts for 14% and Ethereum 17%, indicating healthier diversification across assets.

More critically, Coinbase's subscription and services revenue, which includes staking, custody fees, and Base L2 network activity, has become the company's stability engine. This revenue stream is less volatile than trading fees and represents the infrastructure layer that institutions depend on. Coinbase serves as custodian for 9 of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs and 8 of 9 ETH ETFs, a position that generates recurring revenue regardless of retail trading sentiment.

The platform reported $516 billion in total assets and supports over 370 tradable assets across more than 100 countries. These numbers position Coinbase as the dominant institutional on-ramp even when retail volumes sag.

What COIN Holders and Crypto Users Should Monitor

Three metrics will determine whether the 73% beat odds hold up.

Trading volume trajectory. Q4 2024 saw $439 billion in total trading volume. Analysts expect a significant decline for Q4 2025 given the broader market contraction. If Coinbase can show volume stabilization or a surprise uptick, it would validate the bull case.

Subscription revenue resilience. This is the moat. If subscription and services revenue holds above $700 million (the lower end of Q4 2024 guidance was $710 million), it signals that Coinbase's diversification strategy is working even through a downturn.

Base L2 growth. Coinbase's Layer 2 network, Base, has been a quiet growth engine. Any color on transaction counts, developer activity, or fee revenue from Base could shift narrative from "exchange suffering from low volumes" to "platform building sustainable infrastructure."

For the Coinbase Card specifically, earnings health directly affects the sustainability of card rewards programs. Strong subscription revenue means Coinbase has the margin to maintain cashback incentives and expand card features. A revenue miss could signal tightening ahead.

The Macro Headwind No One Can Ignore

Coinbase's earnings do not exist in a vacuum. Digital assets have lost nearly $500 billion in market value since January 29, with Bitcoin trading at its lowest levels since Election Day 2024. This macro compression creates a challenging backdrop regardless of company-specific execution.

The regulatory picture adds another layer. Citi specifically cited "ongoing uncertainty around the timing of U.S. crypto legislation" as a drag. The CLARITY Act, which would establish a comprehensive market structure framework for digital assets, has been stalled in legislative discussions. Progress on that front could be the single biggest catalyst for both COIN and the broader crypto ecosystem.

Institutional flows tell a mixed story as well. Spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management dropped below $100 billion for the first time since April 2025, down from a peak of $168 billion in October 2025. While Coinbase earns custody fees on these assets regardless, shrinking AUM reduces the growth narrative that powered the stock to its highs.

FAQ

When does Coinbase report Q4 2025 earnings? Coinbase reports after market close on Thursday, February 12, 2026, with a shareholder webcast at 2:30 PM PT.

What are the analyst estimates for Coinbase Q4 2025? Consensus revenue estimates range from $1.69 billion (Citi) to $1.86 billion (broader consensus). EPS estimates range from $0.83 to $1.39, though Citi projects a GAAP loss of $2.64 after crypto mark-to-market adjustments.

Why is Coinbase stock down 65% from its highs? The decline reflects weaker crypto trading volumes, a $500 billion market cap drawdown since late January, softer institutional activity, and regulatory uncertainty around U.S. crypto legislation.

What does Coinbase earnings mean for crypto card users? Strong earnings support continued investment in products like the Coinbase Card, including cashback rewards and feature expansion. Weak results could signal tighter margins ahead.

Overview

Coinbase faces its most scrutinized earnings report in recent memory. The 73% beat odds suggest the market believes the company can clear a lowered bar, but the 65% stock decline from highs tells a story of deep uncertainty about crypto's near-term trajectory. The real tell will not be whether Coinbase beats EPS by a few cents. It will be whether subscription revenue holds, whether Base continues to grow, and whether management offers any forward guidance on how they plan to navigate a market that has lost half a trillion dollars in weeks. February 12 will not just be an earnings call. It will be a sentiment check on the entire crypto infrastructure layer. This is not financial advice.