JPMorgan Slashes Coinbase Price Target by 27% to $290 as Crypto Weakness Clouds Q4 Earnings

JPMorgan Lowers the Bar Two Days Before Earnings

JPMorgan analyst Ken Worthington cut his December 2026 price target on Coinbase (COIN) to $290 from $399 on Monday, a 27% reduction that landed just 48 hours before the exchange reports fourth-quarter results. Despite the haircut, Worthington maintained an Overweight rating, implying roughly 75% upside from COIN's current price near $167. The mixed signal, bullish rating paired with a sharply lower target, captures the tension surrounding the largest U.S. crypto exchange heading into what could be a pivotal earnings call.

COIN shares have fallen over 50% since Bitcoin's October peak and are down roughly 27% year-to-date in 2026. The stock recently traded near $167, well below its 52-week high of $444.65 and uncomfortably close to its 52-week low of $142.58. Thursday's after-hours report will either confirm the slide or offer a reason to reverse it.

The $670 Million Subscription Problem

The core of Worthington's concern sits in Coinbase's subscription and services (S&S) segment, the revenue stream that Wall Street has rewarded with a premium multiple because it appears more stable than transaction fees. JPMorgan projects S&S revenue of $670 million for Q4, landing below Coinbase's own guidance range of $710 million to $790 million.

That miss, if it materializes, would undermine the bull case that Coinbase has successfully diversified beyond trading. Compass Point analyst Chase White struck an even more bearish tone, arguing that the S&S segment "remains closely tied to overall crypto prices" rather than functioning as the recurring revenue engine investors want it to be. Lower staking yields, softer crypto prices across the board, and slower USDC growth all contributed to the downgrade.

On the trading side, JPMorgan estimates $263 billion in spot crypto trading volume for the quarter, a figure that, combined with Deribit's derivatives contribution of roughly $117 million on $586 billion in volume, yields a projected total transaction revenue of $1.06 billion. Barclays estimates trading volumes came in roughly 10% below consensus, adding another layer of caution.

Why the Timing Matters

This is not the first time a major bank has trimmed its Coinbase outlook, but the timing amplifies the impact. Earnings land on Thursday, February 12, after market close, giving investors barely two trading sessions to digest the downgrade. Adjusted EBITDA is projected at $734 million, down from $801 million in Q3, and any miss on that number could accelerate the selling pressure that has already carved 50% off the stock.

The broader context makes the report even more important. Bitcoin has pulled back from its late-2025 highs, altcoin volumes have thinned, and stablecoin growth, the fuel for Coinbase's USDC revenue share with Circle, has decelerated. If Coinbase's management cannot point to a credible path back to volume growth on the earnings call, the $290 target could quickly become a ceiling rather than a floor.

What COIN Shareholders and Crypto Users Should Watch

For shareholders, the key metric on Thursday is the subscription and services breakdown. A number inside or above the $710 million to $790 million guidance range would invalidate much of the bearish thesis. A miss below $670 million would confirm that the premium S&S multiple is unjustified.

For crypto users, particularly Coinbase Card holders, the earnings report carries indirect weight. A struggling stock price does not change card rewards or USDC functionality in the short term, but it does influence Coinbase's willingness to invest in new card features, expand internationally, or subsidize cashback rewards at competitive rates. Exchanges that are growing tend to be more generous with user incentives. Exchanges under pressure tend to cut.

The Deribit acquisition, which closed in late 2025, adds a new variable. If derivatives revenue comes in strong, it could partially offset the spot trading weakness and give management a growth narrative to lean on. Watch for Deribit-specific revenue disclosures and any commentary on institutional derivatives demand.

The Bigger Picture for Crypto Exchanges

JPMorgan's downgrade is not unique to Coinbase. It reflects a broader recalibration across the crypto exchange sector as the euphoria of 2025's bull run gives way to a more sober 2026 environment. Trading volumes across centralized exchanges have declined, and the competition for retail users has intensified.

Bybit and OKX have been aggressively expanding their card and TradFi offerings to capture revenue outside of pure trading. Gate.io has pushed into stocks, forex, and commodities to diversify beyond crypto. Even Uphold launched early paycheck features to compete for daily financial activity rather than just trading fees.

Coinbase's challenge is that its revenue model still leans heavily on crypto market conditions. The Coinbase One credit card and the broader push into subscriptions were supposed to smooth out that cyclicality, but if JPMorgan's projections are correct, the smoothing has not happened fast enough.

The February 12 earnings call will set the tone for COIN for the rest of Q1. A beat, even a modest one, could trigger a relief rally given how beaten down the stock is. A miss would validate the downgrade and potentially open the door to retesting the 52-week low near $142.

FAQ

What is Coinbase's new price target from JPMorgan? JPMorgan cut its December 2026 price target on Coinbase (COIN) from $399 to $290, a 27% reduction. The firm maintained its Overweight rating.

When does Coinbase report Q4 2025 earnings? Coinbase reports fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Thursday, February 12, 2026, after market close.

Why did JPMorgan cut Coinbase's price target? The analyst cited weaker crypto trading volumes, softer crypto prices, and slower USDC stablecoin growth. JPMorgan also expects the subscription and services segment to come in below Coinbase's guidance.

What is COIN's current stock price? As of February 10, 2026, COIN trades near $167, down over 50% from its October 2025 peak and roughly 27% year-to-date.

Overview

JPMorgan's 27% price target cut on Coinbase, from $399 to $290, lands just two days before what could be the most consequential earnings report of the year for the crypto exchange sector. Analyst Ken Worthington maintained an Overweight rating but flagged weaker trading volumes, declining staking yields, and slower USDC growth as drags on Q4 performance. The subscription and services segment, projected at $670 million versus guidance of $710 million to $790 million, is the key battleground. COIN shares are already down 50% from their October peak and 27% year-to-date, making Thursday's report a potential inflection point. For crypto users, the outcome will influence how aggressively Coinbase invests in card rewards, international expansion, and user incentives through the rest of 2026.