The whale-to-retail handoff that on-chain analysts flagged last week has now produced a concrete result: Bitcoin fell below $65,000 on February 23, 2026, sliding 5% in 24 hours to trade near $64,700 as of the time of writing. CoinGecko reported that roughly $100 billion was erased from the total crypto market cap in a single session, with large caps bearing the brunt.
The drop is not happening in a vacuum. CoinDesk reported that whale selling is accelerating while recent buyers continue to lock in losses, a combination that has historically preceded either capitulation bottoms or extended sideways grinds.
The Whale Exchange Ratio Just Hit a Decade High
The most striking data point in the current sell-off is not the price itself but who is doing the selling. CryptoQuant's exchange whale ratio, which measures the proportion of exchange inflows coming from the top 10 largest depositors each day, has surged to 0.64. That means nearly two-thirds of all bitcoin flowing onto exchanges is coming from a handful of massive wallets.
The last time this ratio was this elevated was 2015. For context, 2015 was the trough of the post-Mt. Gox bear market, a period when bitcoin traded between $200 and $300 and the market's largest players were either capitulating or repositioning for the multi-year bull run that followed.
Exchange inflows surged to approximately 60,000 BTC per day during the early February drop. That wave has since cooled to roughly 23,000 BTC on a seven-day smoothed basis, according to Glassnode data cited by CoinDesk. The flow has slowed, but it remains elevated relative to the sub-15,000 BTC daily average seen during the Q4 2025 rally.
Recent Buyers Are Still Bleeding
Whales are not the only ones taking losses. Short-term holders, those who bought within the last 155 days, peaked at $1.24 billion in daily realized losses on February 6, 2026. That figure has since compressed to $480 million per day as of February 22.
The trajectory matters more than the absolute number. The decline from $1.24 billion to $480 million suggests that the most aggressive panic selling has cooled. But $480 million in daily realized losses still indicates that a meaningful cohort of buyers from the $70,000 to $80,000 range is actively capitulating rather than holding through the drawdown.
CoinDesk characterized the current phase as a "bottom-building" period, a term of art for the messy, volatile stretch where sellers exhaust themselves and new demand gradually absorbs the supply. The problem is that bottom-building phases can last weeks or months, and calling one in real time is nearly impossible.
Stablecoin Inflows Have Collapsed
If whale selling is the supply side of the equation, stablecoin inflows are the demand side. And demand is evaporating.
Net USDT inflows to exchanges peaked at $616 million per day in November 2025, when Bitcoin was running past $90,000. That figure has since collapsed to just $27 million. It briefly turned negative in late January, meaning more Tether was leaving exchanges than entering them.
This is the dry-powder problem. New money entering the crypto market through stablecoins has slowed to a trickle at the exact moment when large holders are dumping supply onto exchanges. The imbalance between shrinking inflows and persistent whale selling is what produces the kind of 5% single-day drops that defined Sunday's session.
For holders who use stablecoin-denominated crypto cards, the stablecoin outflow trend carries a subtler risk: if USDT or USDC face redemption pressure during a prolonged downturn, top-up speeds and availability could be affected even if the peg holds.
Altcoins Are Showing Stress Too
Bitcoin's drop is bad. The altcoin picture may be worse.
Average daily altcoin exchange deposits have climbed to approximately 49,000 in 2026, up from roughly 40,000 in Q4 2025. Higher exchange deposits in altcoins historically correlate with increased selling pressure and weaker risk appetite, as holders move tokens off wallets and onto exchanges to sell.
CoinGecko's market snapshot showed large caps broadly lower: Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and BNB all posted losses. The sell-off is not isolated to one sector or narrative. It is broad-based, the kind of drawdown where correlations converge to 1 and diversification within crypto offers little protection.
What Macro Conditions Are Adding to the Pressure
The crypto-specific data tells most of the story, but the macro backdrop is not helping. U.S. stock index futures opened lower on Sunday evening, with the Nasdaq 100 down 0.9%. Precious metals moved sharply higher, with gold up 2% and silver surging 5.6%, a classic risk-off rotation.
The combination of equity weakness and metals strength typically reflects growing uncertainty about economic growth, exactly the environment where speculative assets like crypto face headwinds. We covered the yen carry trade unwind earlier this week, which triggered margin calls across risk books. That structural force has not fully resolved, and each new leg lower in crypto creates fresh margin pressure for leveraged positions.
President Trump's 15% global tariff, which we covered on Friday, is adding another layer of uncertainty. Cointelegraph noted that the tariff would most benefit China and Brazil according to the Financial Times, a twist that could shift trade flows in ways that further complicate the dollar-denominated risk asset picture.
The Contrarian Signals Are Piling Up, but Timing Is the Problem
For those looking for reasons to be optimistic, the contrarian indicators are flashing. We noted last week that Google searches for "bitcoin going to zero" hit a record high while the Fear and Greed Index sat at 5. The retail-whale supply divergence showed retail accumulating at levels not seen since June 2024.
The whale exchange ratio hitting 2015 levels adds another contrarian data point. In 2015, the elevated whale selling preceded a multi-year bull run. But 2015 also involved months of sideways price action below $300 before any meaningful recovery began.
Contrarian signals tell you direction eventually. They do not tell you timing. A holder who bought at the 2015 whale-ratio peak still needed to sit through six months of chop before the trend reversed. The current setup could resolve similarly: the data says smart money is selling, retail is buying, and eventually the selling will exhaust. The question is whether $65,000 holds or whether the exhaustion point is lower.
What Crypto Card Holders Should Watch
For users spending crypto through cards, the practical impact depends entirely on denomination. Those holding BTC-denominated balances on custodial exchange cards or self-custody wallets are watching their spending power erode in real time. A 5% overnight drop means $100 in bitcoin yesterday buys $95 in goods today.
Stablecoin-denominated cards insulate against this volatility, which is one reason the stablecoin card category has grown in popularity during the downturn. Cards like RedotPay and KAST that settle in USDC or USDT allow holders to maintain spending power regardless of BTC price action.
The risk for stablecoin card holders is different but real: if exchange liquidity tightens during a prolonged bear market, conversion spreads between crypto and fiat at the point of sale could widen. The disclosed fee on a card is not the full cost. Hidden layers include the Visa or Mastercard network spread (typically 0.5% to 0.9%), plus any crypto-to-fiat conversion spread the card issuer embeds at the time of the transaction.
FAQ
Is this the bottom for Bitcoin? On-chain data shows whale selling is decelerating from its February peak, but the exchange whale ratio at 0.64 (highest since 2015) indicates large holders are still distributing. Bottom-building phases can take weeks or months to resolve. The $480 million in daily realized losses from recent buyers suggests capitulation is ongoing but not yet complete.
How much has the total crypto market lost? CoinGecko reported approximately $100 billion wiped from the total crypto market cap in a single 24-hour period on February 23, 2026. This follows the broader drawdown we covered earlier, which saw the total market roundtrip the entire 2024-2025 rally.
What does the whale exchange ratio mean? The exchange whale ratio measures the share of exchange inflows from the top 10 largest depositors each day. At 0.64, nearly two-thirds of all BTC entering exchanges comes from a small number of large wallets. Historically, extreme readings have coincided with either capitulation bottoms (2015) or extended distribution phases.
Should I convert my crypto card balance to stablecoins? This depends on your risk tolerance and time horizon. Stablecoin-denominated cards protect spending power during drawdowns, while BTC-denominated cards expose your balance to price volatility. Neither approach is universally correct, but holders who need to spend crypto in the near term may prefer the stability of USDC or USDT-funded cards.
Overview
Bitcoin broke below $65,000 on February 23, 2026, falling 5% to $64,700 as $100 billion was wiped from the total crypto market in a single day. The exchange whale ratio hit 0.64, the highest since 2015, meaning nearly two-thirds of all BTC flowing to exchanges now comes from the 10 largest depositors. Recent buyers are still realizing $480 million in daily losses, down from a $1.24 billion peak on February 6 but still elevated. Stablecoin inflows have collapsed from $616 million per day in November to just $27 million, removing the demand cushion that supported prices during the 2025 rally. The sell-off is broad-based across altcoins, with macro conditions (falling equities, surging precious metals, tariff uncertainty) adding pressure. Contrarian signals are accumulating, but historical precedent suggests the resolution could take months.
Recommended Reading
- Retail Bitcoin Holders Hit Their Highest Supply Share Since June 2024 as Whales Dump 81,000 BTC in Eight Days
- Google Searches for Bitcoin Going to Zero Just Hit a Record High, but the Contrarian Signal Is Muddier Than 2022
- The Yen Carry Trade Just Unwound Hard Enough to Trigger Margin Calls Across Risk Books, and Bitcoin Took the Hit
