Euro Stablecoins Could Explode 1,600x to €1.1 Trillion by 2030 as 11 European Banks Form Consortium

S&P Global Says Euro Stablecoins Could Hit €1.1 Trillion

On February 3, 2026, S&P Global Ratings released a report titled "European Banks Are Embracing Stablecoins With An Eye On The Future" that projects the euro stablecoin market could grow from approximately €650 million at the end of 2025 to between €25 billion and €1.1 trillion by 2030. At the upper end, that represents a 1,600-fold expansion in under five years. S&P analyst Cihan Duran stated the projected range would be "equivalent to between 0.1% and 4.2% of eurozone banks' overnight deposits," framing the growth potential against existing banking infrastructure rather than speculative crypto metrics.

The report identifies two primary growth catalysts: the tokenization of real-world assets for investment purposes and increased stablecoin adoption for retail and corporate payments. Both trends are already underway but have been bottlenecked by regulatory uncertainty, something the EU has now addressed.

Why Eleven Banks Formed Qivalis in Amsterdam

The most concrete signal in this space is the formation of Qivalis, an Amsterdam-based consortium of eleven European banks working to bring a euro-denominated stablecoin to market in the second half of 2026. The consortium includes ING, BNP Paribas, UniCredit, CaixaBank, Danske Bank, DekaBank, Banca Sella, KBC, SEB, and Raiffeisen Bank International.

This is not a pilot program or an exploratory committee. Qivalis is a dedicated legal entity structured to operate under full regulatory supervision as an electronic money institution. The banks are targeting enterprise use cases first: treasury operations, supply chain finance, tokenization of financial assets, and cross-border settlement. Unlike retail-focused initiatives such as the planned digital euro from the European Central Bank, Qivalis is designed for institutional plumbing, the kind of infrastructure that moves billions between corporations on programmable rails.

The decision to headquarter in Amsterdam signals alignment with the Netherlands' established fintech regulatory environment and its proximity to major European clearing operations.

MiCA: The Regulatory Catalyst Banks Were Waiting For

The EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), which S&P describes as "one of the world's most comprehensive stablecoin regulations," is the reason this is happening now rather than in three years. MiCA provides a harmonized legal framework across all EU member states, setting clear requirements around issuance, reserves, and supervision. For banks accustomed to operating within strict compliance frameworks, MiCA reduced the barrier to entry without asking them to take on uncharted regulatory risk.

Before MiCA, each EU member state had its own patchwork of crypto regulations. Banks could not justify committing capital to stablecoin projects when the rules might change country by country. Now, a single regulatory passport covers all 27 member states. This is the same structural advantage that made SEPA transfers work across Europe, applied to blockchain-based value transfer.

The regulation also creates competitive pressure. With clear rules in place, any bank that delays risks losing ground to early movers. The formation of Qivalis suggests that Europe's largest financial institutions understand this urgency.

The €19 Trillion Economy With Less Than 1% Stablecoin Representation

Here is the number that explains everything: despite the eurozone representing a €19 trillion economy serving approximately 350 million people, euro-pegged stablecoins currently account for less than 1% of the global stablecoin market. The global stablecoin market sits at roughly $305 billion according to DefiLlama, dominated overwhelmingly by dollar-denominated assets like Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC.

This imbalance exists for historical reasons. The crypto ecosystem grew up on dollar rails. Tether launched in 2014, USDC in 2018. Both predate any serious European regulatory framework for digital assets. By the time MiCA was finalized, dollar stablecoins had already captured the market. USDT and USDC absorbed $45 billion in net inflows in Q3 2025 alone, demonstrating the flywheel effect of incumbency.

But market share is not destiny. The euro is the second most traded currency globally. European commercial banking transactions dwarf those of the crypto-native stablecoin market. If even a fraction of intra-European bank settlement migrates to blockchain-based euro stablecoins, the €25 billion floor of S&P's projection becomes conservative.

What This Means for Crypto Users in Europe

For European crypto card holders and DeFi users, native euro stablecoins solve a persistent pain point: foreign exchange conversion. Today, most crypto card transactions in Europe involve converting USD-denominated stablecoins to euros at the point of sale, incurring FX spreads that range from 0.5% to 2% depending on the provider. A liquid, bank-backed euro stablecoin eliminates that friction entirely.

Card platforms already operating in the European market, including Gnosis Pay, Wirex, and others with MiCA-compliant infrastructure, would be natural integration partners for a Qivalis-issued stablecoin. The enterprise focus of the initial launch does not preclude retail adoption. Once the settlement layer exists, retail products can be built on top.

Beyond cards, euro stablecoins open up DeFi yield opportunities denominated in euros. Currently, euro yield in DeFi is thin because liquidity is thin. A 1,600x increase in euro stablecoin supply would create deep liquidity pools, lending markets, and structured products that do not require European users to take on dollar exposure just to participate in decentralized finance.

Europe vs. America: The Stablecoin Sovereignty Race

This is also a story about monetary sovereignty. The S&P report frames euro stablecoins as a strategic response to dollar-denominated token dominance. As stablecoins increasingly serve as the settlement layer for tokenized assets, cross-border payments, and DeFi protocols, the currency denomination of those stablecoins carries geopolitical weight.

The United States is moving in parallel. The NYSE recently announced a platform for tokenized securities with stablecoin-based settlement. PayPal, BlackRock, and Fidelity have all launched or invested in stablecoin products. The competition is not about which stablecoin "wins" but about whether European financial infrastructure will run on European tokens or default to American ones.

Qivalis is the European banking sector's answer. By building a bank-backed, MiCA-regulated euro stablecoin designed for institutional settlement, Europe is betting that regulatory clarity and banking trust can compete with the first-mover advantage of USDT and USDC.

The Bear Case: Why €25 Billion Is More Likely Than €1.1 Trillion

S&P's projection range is enormous: €25 billion to €1.1 trillion. The gap between 38x growth and 1,600x growth is not a rounding error. It reflects genuine uncertainty about blockchain adoption timelines, tokenization demand, and whether traditional banks can ship products at the speed required to capture market share.

Banks are not known for rapid execution. Qivalis targets H2 2026 for launch, but consortium projects involving eleven institutions across multiple countries have a history of delays. The digital euro project from the ECB, announced years ago, remains in its preparation phase. If Qivalis follows a similar timeline, the window for capturing early stablecoin demand narrows.

There is also the question of competition within Europe. Qivalis is not the only entity exploring euro stablecoins. If multiple bank-backed stablecoins launch simultaneously, fragmentation could prevent any single token from achieving the liquidity needed to compete with USDT.

FAQ

How much are euro stablecoins worth today? Approximately €650 million at the end of 2025, according to S&P Global Ratings. That is less than 1% of the global stablecoin market.

What is Qivalis? Qivalis is an Amsterdam-based entity formed by eleven European banks to develop and launch a euro-denominated stablecoin. Member banks include ING, BNP Paribas, UniCredit, CaixaBank, and others.

When will the Qivalis euro stablecoin launch? The consortium is targeting the second half of 2026.

Will euro stablecoins work with crypto cards? Native euro stablecoins would eliminate FX conversion fees for European crypto card users, making them a natural fit for card platforms operating in the EU.

What is MiCA? The Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation is the EU's comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, including stablecoins. It provides a single set of rules across all 27 EU member states.

Overview

S&P Global Ratings projects the euro stablecoin market could grow from €650 million to as much as €1.1 trillion by 2030, a 1,600x increase at the upper bound. Eleven European banks have formed Qivalis, an Amsterdam-based consortium targeting a euro stablecoin launch in H2 2026. The initiative is enabled by MiCA, the EU's comprehensive crypto regulation that gives banks a clear compliance framework. For European crypto users, native euro stablecoins promise to eliminate FX conversion fees on card transactions and unlock euro-denominated DeFi yield. The broader context is a sovereignty race between European and American stablecoin infrastructure, with the outcome shaping how the next generation of financial settlement operates.