Bernstein is telling clients to buy the wreckage.
Crypto-linked equities have fallen roughly 60% from their October 2025 highs, dragged down by a Bitcoin drawdown of 40-50% from its record near $126,000. As of March 30, 2026, BTC trades at $67,304, ETH at $2,054, and the Fear & Greed Index reads 27: Fear. The broader market is nervous, and crypto stocks have taken the worst of it.
Bernstein's response: lower the price targets, keep the outperform ratings, and tell investors this is a rare entry point.
Coinbase at Half Price, Robinhood With 94% Upside
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and his team revised their targets downward across three crypto equities, but the gap between current prices and those targets tells the real story:
- Coinbase (COIN): Trading at approximately $165.50, target cut from $440 to $330. That is still a 99% premium to current price.
- Robinhood (HOOD): Trading at approximately $67.10, target lowered from $160 to $130. Implied upside: 94%.
- Figure (FIGR): Trading at approximately $31.14, target trimmed from $72 to $67. Implied upside: 116%.
The cuts are meaningful. Coinbase lost $110 from its target. Robinhood lost $30. But the thesis did not change: Bernstein maintained outperform ratings on all three, arguing that the selloff has priced in too much pessimism relative to the underlying businesses.
Why Bernstein Thinks the Bottom Is Close
The note frames the current moment as "nearing a bottom heading into first-quarter earnings." The logic is straightforward: crypto stocks tend to reprice around earnings because that is when speculation meets actual revenue numbers. If Q1 results show these companies held up through the downturn, the stocks have room to recover.
Coinbase, for context, generated $6.6 billion in revenue in 2025, a record year. Robinhood's crypto division has grown from a side feature to a material revenue stream. The question is whether Q1 2026, a quarter defined by Bitcoin's worst performance since 2018, damaged these businesses as badly as the stock prices suggest.
Bernstein's bet is that it did not. The firm described the current setup as "big businesses at big discounts," a framing that treats the equity selloff as a sentiment dislocation rather than a fundamental deterioration.
The $150,000 Bitcoin Target Stays
Perhaps the most notable detail: Bernstein did not touch its year-end Bitcoin price target of $150,000. With BTC sitting near $67,300 as of today, that implies a 123% rally over the remaining nine months of 2026.
That target was set when Bitcoin was near its highs. Keeping it unchanged after a 40-50% drawdown is a strong signal of conviction, or stubbornness, depending on your view. But it aligns with the broader thesis: if you believe the drawdown is cyclical rather than structural, the current prices are a gift.
For context, crypto funds just bled $414 million in outflows last week, the first net negative week in five. Ethereum ETF outflows have hit eight straight days. Institutional sentiment is clearly cautious. Bernstein is positioning against that consensus.
What a Crypto Stock Recovery Means for the Ecosystem
Coinbase and Robinhood are not just stock tickers. They are the primary fiat on-ramps for millions of crypto users. Coinbase processes card top-ups for several crypto card programs, and its Coinbase One credit card is one of the few US-available options with no annual fee and crypto rewards. Robinhood's crypto custody expansion has made it a direct competitor to exchanges.
If Bernstein is right and these stocks reprice toward their targets, it would signal renewed confidence in the infrastructure layer of crypto, the companies that connect traditional finance to digital assets. That matters for anyone using these platforms to fund wallets, convert stablecoins, or manage spending through crypto-linked cards.
Figure is a more niche play, focused on blockchain-based lending and securitization, but its recovery would point to institutional appetite for tokenized financial products.
The Risk Nobody Needs Bernstein to Explain
A 60% drawdown can always become a 75% drawdown. Maintaining outperform ratings through a crash is easy when the crash reverses. It looks terrible when it deepens. Crypto stocks are leveraged bets on crypto prices, and with BTC down nearly 47% from its record high, the downside scenario is not abstract.
Q1 earnings will be the first real test. If Coinbase revenue held above $1.2 billion for the quarter and Robinhood's crypto volumes stayed elevated despite the selloff, the "buy the dip" call will look prescient. If those numbers disappoint, the targets will get cut again.
Overview
Bernstein, led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, told clients that the 60% crash in crypto stocks from October 2025 highs is a buying opportunity. The firm lowered price targets on Coinbase ($330, from $440), Robinhood ($130, from $160), and Figure ($67, from $72) but maintained outperform ratings on all three. Bernstein kept its year-end Bitcoin target at $150,000, implying 123% upside from the current $67,300 level. The call comes as the Fear & Greed Index sits at 27 (Fear), crypto fund outflows have turned negative, and Ethereum ETFs face eight consecutive days of withdrawals. Q1 earnings in the coming weeks will test whether the sell-off reflects sentiment or fundamentals.
