Brent Gaps 18% on Sunday Open, Crosses $100 for First Time Since 2022
Brent crude oil futures surged 18% to $110 per barrel in the first ten minutes of Sunday evening trading on March 8, 2026, blowing past the $100 mark for the first time since November 2022. The gap-up came as traders priced in the latest weekend escalation in the Strait of Hormuz crisis, where tanker traffic has dropped to near zero since Iran declared the waterway closed to Western-allied shipping on March 2.
The move followed a week where oil had already climbed 35% for its biggest weekly gain in futures history dating back to 1983, according to CNBC. Friday's close was around $93. Sunday's open gapped straight to $110, bypassing every level in between.
Within minutes, Bitcoin dropped below $66,000, with $120 million in crypto positions liquidated in under 60 minutes. The crypto Fear and Greed Index, already at a reading of 12 (extreme fear), showed no signs of recovery as of the time of writing.
The Hormuz Chokepoint That Controls 20% of Global Oil
The Strait of Hormuz is a 21-mile-wide passage between Iran and Oman through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass daily, about one-fifth of global consumption. When Iran's IRGC declared the strait closed to ships from the US, Israel, and Western allies on March 2, tanker traffic initially dropped 70%. By March 5, it was effectively zero for commercial oil tankers.
The crisis stems from Operation Epic Fury, the coordinated US-Israeli strikes on Iran that began February 28 and resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran responded with missile attacks on Gulf states and a blockade of the strait. Multiple tankers have been struck since, including the Skylight on March 1 (two crew killed), the Safeen Prestige tugboat on March 6 (sunk, three missing), and the Louise P on March 7, hit by an IRGC drone.
Goldman Sachs warned on March 6 that oil prices would exceed $100 the following week if no diplomatic solution emerged. Barclays flagged a scenario where Brent could reach $120. The Sunday gap to $110 arrived faster than either forecast anticipated.
$120 Million Liquidated, Fear Index at Rock Bottom
The crypto market absorbed the oil shock in real time. As Brent gapped higher, Bitcoin sold off from around $67,300 to below $66,000 in a matter of minutes. The $120 million in liquidations reported within the first hour added to a brutal stretch: over $334 million had already been liquidated in the prior 24 hours, according to CoinGlass data, with long positions accounting for the vast majority.
Bitget data shows that a sustained break below $66,000 would trigger cumulative long liquidation intensity of $514 million on mainstream centralized exchanges, creating the risk of a cascading deleveraging event similar to the one that took Bitcoin to $60,000 in early February.
The Fear and Greed Index sits at 12 out of 100, its lowest reading since the February crash. Every major cryptocurrency tracked on Binance Futures currently carries a negative funding rate, meaning short sellers are paying to hold their positions. The total crypto market cap has fallen to approximately $2.33 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance at 56.5% and Ethereum at just 9.9%.
Why Oil Moves Now Drive Crypto More Than Geopolitics Alone
Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC at Wintermute, told Bloomberg that "the oil move matters more for crypto than the geopolitics itself." The reasoning is straightforward: rising oil prices feed directly into inflation expectations, which push back the timeline for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which remove the liquidity catalyst that risk assets like Bitcoin depend on.
Before the Iran conflict escalated, markets were pricing in three to four rate cuts in 2026. That expectation has been gutted. With Brent at $110, gasoline prices in the US could climb above $4.50 per gallon within weeks, reviving the inflation readings that had been trending toward the Fed's 2% target.
The transmission mechanism works in stages. Oil at $110 means higher transportation and manufacturing costs. Those feed into CPI within 30 to 60 days. If April and May inflation prints come in hot, the Fed will have no room to cut. And without cuts, the institutional bid for Bitcoin that drove the 2024-2025 rally does not come back.
February 2026 already saw approximately $3.8 billion in net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, the worst single month since spot ETFs launched in January 2024. Year-to-date outflows have reached $4.5 billion. Another month of elevated oil prices could accelerate that trend.
What Bitcoin Holders and Crypto Card Users Should Watch This Week
The $66,000 level is now the line in the sand. If it holds through the Asia session on Monday morning, the worst of the Sunday liquidation cascade may have passed. If it breaks decisively, the $514 million liquidation cluster below becomes live ammunition for a move toward $62,000 to $60,000.
Three data points will determine the next move:
- Monday morning oil price action. If Brent consolidates above $100 but below $110, markets may stabilize. If it pushes toward $120, the risk-off trade intensifies.
- Diplomatic signals. Any credible ceasefire discussion or partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would deflate the oil premium and likely trigger a sharp crypto bounce.
- Exchange deposit flows. On-chain data showed 27,000 BTC (roughly $1.8 billion) transferred to exchanges in profit in a single recent day. If that pace continues, selling pressure stays elevated.
For holders of stablecoin-funded crypto cards, the oil shock creates an indirect cost: if inflation forces the Fed to hold rates higher for longer, the yield on stablecoins parked in DeFi protocols or earning programs could remain attractive relative to spending them. Users holding USDC or USDT on cards like RedotPay or KAST are insulated from the BTC drawdown itself, but the macro picture affects everyone's purchasing power.
For those with cards denominated in volatile crypto, the 0% FX fee options become more relevant as currency markets react to the oil shock. The dollar is likely to strengthen in the short term as a safe-haven trade, which means non-USD crypto card users could face additional FX headwinds on top of token depreciation.
A Macro Storm With No Clear Exit
The last time oil was above $100 was November 2022, during the tail end of the Russia-Ukraine energy crisis. Bitcoin was trading around $16,000 at the time, in the depths of the FTX-driven bear market. The circumstances are different now: Bitcoin sits at $66,000, institutional infrastructure exists through ETFs, and the network is post-halving. But the macro headwind is the same. Expensive energy raises costs, raises inflation, and removes the rate-cut catalyst that risk assets need.
The Iran conflict shows no signs of de-escalation. The IRGC's selective passage policy (allowing non-Western ships through Hormuz while blocking allied traffic) has created a two-tier oil market that could persist for weeks or months. Insurance costs for tankers passing near the strait have surged to record levels, and some underwriters have withdrawn war-risk coverage entirely.
Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets means it cannot ignore this. The narrative of Bitcoin as digital gold or an inflation hedge has been tested in previous oil shocks and found wanting in the short term. Over the medium term, a sustained period of high inflation could eventually benefit Bitcoin as a store of value, but that thesis requires patience that leveraged traders do not have.
FAQ
How far could Bitcoin fall if oil stays above $100? Analysts at Bitget and CoinGlass data suggest that a sustained break below $66,000 could trigger $514 million in cascading long liquidations, potentially pushing BTC toward the $60,000 to $62,000 range. The February 2026 low of approximately $60,000 would be the next major support.
Why does oil price affect Bitcoin? Higher oil prices increase inflation expectations, which reduce the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Rate cuts provide liquidity that flows into risk assets like Bitcoin. Without them, institutional demand weakens and ETF outflows accelerate.
Are stablecoin holders affected by the oil shock? Stablecoins like USDC and USDT maintain their dollar peg regardless of oil prices, so the token value is not directly affected. However, if inflation rises and purchasing power drops, the real value of those dollars declines. Users spending stablecoins through crypto cards still face higher prices at the register.
What happened in the Strait of Hormuz? Following US-Israeli strikes on Iran beginning February 28, 2026, the IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to Western-allied shipping. Multiple tankers have been attacked, tanker traffic dropped to near zero, and oil prices have risen over 35% in a single week.
Overview
Oil futures gapped 18% to $110 per barrel on the Sunday evening open, crossing $100 for the first time since November 2022 as the Strait of Hormuz crisis intensified. Bitcoin dropped below $66,000 within minutes, with $120 million in crypto positions liquidated in under an hour. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 12, its lowest level since the February crash. The oil shock threatens to delay Federal Reserve rate cuts by reigniting inflation fears, removing the liquidity catalyst that Bitcoin needs for a sustained recovery. The $66,000 level is now the key support, with $514 million in long liquidation pressure waiting below it.
Recommended Reading
- The US Economy Lost 92,000 Jobs in February and 161,000 More Just Vanished From Prior Reports, and Bitcoin Is Stuck at 67,000 Trying to Price It All In
- Bitcoin Whales Dumped 66 Percent of Their Positions at 74000 While Retail Kept Buying the Dip
- Over $9 Billion Flees Bitcoin and Ether ETFs in Four Months, the Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since Launch
Sources
- WatcherGuru: Bitcoin falls under $66,000
- WatcherGuru: Brent crude surges 18% to $110
- CNBC: Oil surges 35% for biggest weekly gain in futures history
- CNBC: Tanker rates soar as insurers drop war risk protection
- Al Jazeera: Iran says will attack any ship in Strait of Hormuz
- Wikipedia: 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis
