Six months after going public at $28 per share, Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ: GEMI) trades at $5.87 as of February 22, 2026. The 82% decline makes it one of the fastest post-IPO collapses in public crypto company history, and Bloomberg's latest analysis warns that the Winklevoss twins' exchange risks a "hard landing" as the broader crypto market downturn exposes structural cracks in its business model.
The damage is not limited to the stock chart. In the span of 18 days, Gemini announced it would exit the United Kingdom, European Union, and Australia, cut 25% of its workforce, lose its COO, CFO, and chief legal officer in a single day, and bet the company's future on a prediction markets thesis that even its own executives have not yet proven can generate meaningful revenue.
From $4 Billion to $687 Million in Six Months
Gemini's September 2025 IPO valued the company at roughly $4 billion. As of February 22, the market cap sits below $700 million. The 52-week range tells the story: GEMI peaked at $45.89 before sliding to its current all-time low of $5.79.
The financial mechanics behind the decline are straightforward. According to SEC filings cited by PYMNTS, Gemini's operating expenses surged approximately 70% in 2025 to $520-530 million, while net revenue grew just 17% to an estimated $165-175 million. The company went public expecting a crypto bull market to continue through 2027. Bitcoin's 40%-plus decline since then destroyed that thesis.
Truist Securities analysts noted that management "placed a big bet on the crypto bull market run continuing through 2027," but "crypto asset prices have cratered," forcing a rapid strategy recalibration. Gemini's spot market share has collapsed to 0.1% of global trading volume in January 2026, down from 0.6% in June 2025.
Three Executives, One Day, Zero Warning
On February 17, Gemini disclosed in a Form 8-K filing that three C-suite leaders departed effective immediately: Marshall Beard (COO), Dan Chen (CFO), and Tyler Meade (CLO). The stock dropped more than 10% on the news.
Co-founder Cameron Winklevoss assumed many of Beard's operational and revenue-generating responsibilities, adding those duties to his existing role as president. The board promoted Danijela Stojanovic (chief accounting officer) to interim CFO and Kate Freedman (associate general counsel) to interim general counsel. At least one additional senior leader from Gemini's APAC division was also let go the same day.
The triple departure, coming just five months after IPO, triggered investigations from securities law firms. Block & Leviton and Hagens Berman both opened probes into whether Gemini committed securities violations, citing the gap between pre-IPO optimism and the rapid deterioration that followed. Needham & Company slashed its price target to $10.
Withdrawing From Three Continents
Gemini's regional exit affects every user outside the United States and Singapore. Customer accounts in the UK, EU, and Australia will enter withdrawal-only mode on March 5, 2026, with full closure in April. The company has partnered with eToro to facilitate asset transfers for affected users who sign up by end of March.
The exits represent an admission that Gemini never achieved meaningful market share outside the US. Tyler Winklevoss framed it as focus rather than retreat: "America has the world's greatest capital markets and America has always been where it's at for Gemini. So it's time for Gemini to focus and double down on America."
The 25% workforce reduction, cutting roughly 200 positions to leave approximately 600 employees, compounds a 50% cut in 2025. Total headcount has fallen 62.5% from its peak. For a company that went public less than six months ago, the speed of the contraction is striking.
The Winklevoss Bitcoin Sell-Down
While Tyler Winklevoss has publicly maintained a bullish posture on crypto, onchain data tells a different story. According to Cointelegraph, Arkham Intelligence data shows Winklevoss Capital's Bitcoin holdings declined from approximately 23,000 BTC in February 2025 to fewer than 11,000 BTC by February 2026. That is a reduction of more than 12,000 BTC, worth roughly $780 million at current prices, sold during the same period the brothers publicly championed Bitcoin.
Tyler Winklevoss described himself as "optimistic" despite what he characterized as "extremely pessimistic market sentiment." The divergence between public messaging and onchain behavior adds another layer of concern for GEMI shareholders already watching the stock crater.
The Prediction Markets Bet
Gemini's survival plan centers on prediction markets. The Winklevoss twins' thesis: "Prediction markets will be as big or bigger than today's capital markets."
The company launched Gemini Predictions in mid-December 2025, reporting more than 10,000 users and $24 million in trading volume. It has secured a CFTC-regulated license to expand the marketplace. Bloomberg reports that Gemini is now focusing on three pillars: prediction markets, custody services, and its credit card program.
Whether $24 million in cumulative volume from 10,000 users can scale into a business that justifies even a $700 million valuation is the open question. Polymarket, the dominant prediction market platform, processed billions in volume during the 2024 US election cycle but has struggled to maintain engagement between major events. Kalshi, another CFTC-regulated competitor, is fighting its own regulatory battles in state courts.
What This Means for Gemini Card Holders
Gemini's credit card program, issued through WebBank, is US-only and technically separate from the exchange's international operations. The Gemini Credit Card and Gemini Solana Card continue to offer up to 4% crypto rewards on gas, EV, and transit purchases with no annual fee and 0% FX markup.
But the exchange's financial health matters for anyone relying on Gemini's rewards ecosystem. Credit card rewards programs depend on the issuer's ability to fund them. If Gemini's operating losses continue to widen (expenses at $520M versus $170M in revenue), future adjustments to reward tiers, category structures, or partner integrations are possible. The removal of the Gemini Credit Card's welcome bonus in January 2026 was an early signal.
For users comparing crypto card options, the broader lesson is counterparty risk. Custodial rewards programs are only as durable as the company behind them. The FTX precedent demonstrated what happens when a custodial provider fails. Gemini is nowhere near that scenario, but evaluating an issuer's financial stability alongside its reward rates is essential due diligence.
Users in the UK, EU, or Australia who hold assets on Gemini should prioritize withdrawals before the March 5 deadline. The eToro migration path is available, or users can withdraw to self-custody wallets and explore alternative card issuers that serve those regions, such as Crypto.com, Bybit, or Binance.
A Pattern Across the Industry
Gemini's contraction fits a wider pattern in early 2026. Bitcoin ETFs have shed $3.8 billion in five weeks. More than 80% of 2025 token launches trade below their listing price. Capital is rotating from crypto-native platforms toward traditional financial rails and M&A.
The difference with Gemini is the speed. Most crypto companies that went public during bullish windows had years to adjust before a downturn tested them. Gemini had months. The IPO-to-crisis timeline, September 2025 to February 2026, may set a record for the sector. Two securities law firms are now examining whether Gemini's pre-IPO disclosures adequately warned investors of the risks that materialized almost immediately after listing.
For the Winklevoss twins, who built their reputation as Bitcoin evangelists and regulatory pioneers (Gemini was the first licensed US exchange in 2015), the stakes are existential. They are betting that prediction markets can replace the exchange revenue that evaporated with the bull market. If that bet fails, the company that once valued itself at $4 billion will face questions about whether it can survive as a standalone entity.
FAQ
Is the Gemini Credit Card affected by the UK/EU/Australia exit? No. The Gemini Credit Card is US-only, issued through WebBank. It is not directly impacted by the international exchange closures. However, Gemini's financial health could eventually affect card program features and reward structures.
What should UK/EU/Australian Gemini users do? Withdraw assets before March 5, 2026, when accounts enter withdrawal-only mode. Gemini has partnered with eToro to help users transfer holdings. Full account closure happens in April 2026.
Is Gemini at risk of insolvency? Gemini's expenses significantly outpace its revenue ($520M vs $170M), but the company raised capital through its IPO and has not disclosed a liquidity crisis. The securities investigations focus on disclosure practices, not solvency. However, sustained losses at this rate would require additional capital or further cost cuts.
What are prediction markets and why is Gemini betting on them? Prediction markets let users trade contracts on the outcome of future events (elections, economic data, sports). Gemini believes these markets will eventually rival traditional capital markets in size. The company launched Gemini Predictions in December 2025 with CFTC regulatory approval.
Overview
Gemini Space Station's stock has fallen 82% from its September 2025 IPO price of $28 to $5.87. The exchange is exiting the UK, EU, and Australia, cutting 25% of its workforce (on top of a 50% cut in 2025), and lost its COO, CFO, and CLO in a single day. The Winklevoss twins are pivoting to prediction markets while Arkham data shows they have quietly sold more than half of their personal Bitcoin holdings. Securities law firms have opened investigations into pre-IPO disclosures. Gemini's US credit card program continues to operate, but users should monitor the company's financial trajectory and consider counterparty risk when evaluating rewards programs tied to any single exchange.
Recommended Reading
- Bitcoin ETFs Shed $3.8 Billion in Five Weeks as IBIT Drives the Longest Outflow Streak Since the Pre-Crash February 2025 Bleed
- More Than 80 Percent of 2025 Token Launches Are Underwater as Capital Rotates Into Crypto Stocks and M&A
- Bitcoin Breaks Below $65,000 as $100 Billion Vanishes in a Single Day and the Whale Exchange Ratio Hits a Level Not Seen Since 2015
