Standard Chartered told clients that spot XRP ETFs could attract $4 billion to $8 billion in net inflows by year-end if the CLARITY Act becomes law, according to a CryptoPotato writeup published May 12, 2026. The bank's estimate is tied directly to legislative progress, not approval mechanics at the SEC, and assumes the bill clears Congress in roughly its current form.
XRP traded at $1.46 as of May 12, 2026, up 1.2% on the day and 3.9% on the week, according to the snapshot used for this article.
Standard Chartered's $4-8 billion estimate
The range comes from comparing XRP's market cap and addressable holder base against early flows into spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs in the United States. Standard Chartered has run similar calculations for other large-cap tokens, and its prior estimates for spot ETH ETF inflows in the months after approval were broadly in line with what actually showed up.
The $4 billion floor assumes a relatively cool reception from US wealth advisers. The $8 billion ceiling assumes the kind of allocator interest that pushed spot Bitcoin products to record levels in early 2024. Both scenarios depend on the CLARITY Act actually passing this year, which is the key conditional.
The bill is the gating factor
The CLARITY for Payment Stablecoins Act and the broader market structure language commonly grouped under the "CLARITY" banner would split crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC and give the CFTC primary authority over digital commodities. For XRP specifically, that would settle a long-running question about whether the asset trades as a security in secondary markets, and would make a spot XRP ETF substantially easier to approve.
Right now, the SEC has not approved a spot XRP product. A handful of issuers, including Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and 21Shares, have filings in various stages. The bottleneck is regulatory classification, not investor demand. Standard Chartered's note frames the bill as the trigger event: if CLARITY clears, approvals follow, and the inflow math kicks in.
The estimate also implicitly assumes the bill is not gutted on the way through. Earlier reporting covered exchange lobbying to strip manipulation language from drafts, which is part of why both sides of the industry are still watching markup sessions closely.
Flare's XRPFi angle
The same note flagged growing institutional interest in Flare's XRPFi stack, which lets XRP holders earn yield without leaving the network's economic gravity. Flare uses a wrapped XRP variant (FXRP) and a federated state-connector system to bring XRP liquidity into DeFi venues for lending, restaking, and staking-like products.
The argument is straightforward: if a US-listed XRP ETF launches, custodians and asset managers holding XRP on behalf of clients will want a regulated way to generate yield on those positions. XRPFi, in its current form, is built around exactly that use case. Flare has been quietly courting institutional partners since late 2025.
This is still a small ecosystem by TVL. The pitch is that ETF approval pulls institutional rails into XRPFi, not that XRPFi is large today.
Reasons to take the number with salt
A few caveats matter. Standard Chartered's spot Ether ETF estimate landed in the right zip code, but the bank's earlier "$500K Bitcoin by 2028" call sits well above current price levels. Forecast accuracy varies by product.
Second, $4-8 billion is a wide range. The mid-point implies XRP ETFs would land between spot Bitcoin product flows and spot Ether product flows, which is plausible but not guaranteed. XRP's holder base is heavily retail and geographically concentrated outside the US, which can cut either way for US ETF demand.
Third, this is conditional on the bill. CLARITY has cleared committee but has not yet had a floor vote in the Senate as of publication. If the bill slips into 2027, the inflow window slides with it. As crypto fund inflows recently showed, positioning around CLARITY is already a meaningful chunk of the trade.
Overview
Standard Chartered estimates XRP ETFs could attract $4-8 billion in inflows by year-end 2026 if the CLARITY Act passes Congress. The bank also highlighted Flare's XRPFi stack as an institutional yield venue that would benefit from US ETF launches. Both calls are conditional on legislative passage that has not happened yet. XRP last traded at $1.46 on May 12, 2026.
