For the first time in the current drawdown, more Bitcoin is held at a loss than in profit. Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish put the split at 10.83 million BTC underwater against 9.22 million BTC still in the green, a milestone flagged by CoinMarketCap on July 3 and detailed in Glassnode's latest Week On-Chain report.
Bitcoin trades at $61,563 as of July 3, 2026, up 1.5% in 24 hours after rebounding from a low near $57,800 late last week. The Fear & Greed index sits at 23, in Fear territory. ETH is the outlier on the day, up 5.5% to $1,722.
10.83 Million Coins in the Red
The crossover matters because of where it tends to happen. In past cycles, the moment when loss-holding supply overtakes profit-holding supply has clustered near major bear market bottoms, when the average holder is underwater and sellers with conviction have mostly finished selling.
The aggregate realized price, the average cost basis across all coins, sits near $53,000 according to Glassnode, about 9% below spot. That gap means the market as a whole is still marginally profitable on a cost-basis view, even as more than half of individual coins sit below their acquisition price. Coins bought during the run to the cycle high carry the losses; coins from earlier years still hold gains.
Beamish was careful not to call a bottom outright. He noted that "a final capitulation-driven volatility spike cannot yet be ruled out." The crossover is a condition seen at bottoms, not a guarantee of one.
Long-Term Holders Are Buying the Drawdown
The more constructive signal in the same dataset: long-term holders have returned to accumulation after an extended stretch of distribution, pushing their combined supply to a record 16.3 million BTC. Beamish said the buying is broadening across wallet cohorts, including smaller holders and entities holding 100 to 1,000 BTC, per The Block.
Exchange reserves tell a similar story. Balances on trading venues have fallen to roughly 2.21 million BTC, a seven-year low, as coins migrate off exchanges and into long-term storage wallets. Coins held off-exchange are slower to sell, which historically dampens supply pressure during recoveries.
Beamish also pointed to a bid-heavy Coinbase orderbook and dealer gamma positioning that has turned supportive near current prices, both signs of stabilizing market structure around the $58,000 to $61,000 zone.
ETF Redemptions Cut Against the Bottom Case
The institutional channel is still leaking. US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a $296 million net outflow on July 1, capping a June that saw $4.5 billion in redemptions, the worst month for the products since January 2024. Through June 26, the funds had recorded seven straight negative weeks totaling $1.79 billion.
That sets up the current tension. On-chain cohorts, the wallets Glassnode tracks, are accumulating into weakness. The ETF wrapper, where most new institutional and retail money has entered since 2024, is still exiting. One of those flows reverses eventually, and which one moves first will likely decide whether the loss crossover marked the floor or just a stop on the way down.
This is on-chain analysis, not financial advice. Crossover signals have failed before, and Beamish's own caveat about a capitulation spike stands.
Overview
Glassnode data shows 10.83 million BTC held at a loss versus 9.22 million in profit, the first such crossover of this drawdown and a pattern that has historically appeared near bear market bottoms. Long-term holder supply hit a record 16.3 million BTC, exchange reserves fell to seven-year lows near 2.21 million BTC, and the Coinbase orderbook has turned bid-heavy. Against that, US spot ETFs bled $4.5 billion in June and $296 million more on July 1. Bitcoin trades at $61,563 as of July 3, 2026, with sentiment at 23 on the Fear & Greed index.
