Bitcoin miners have been bleeding for three months straight, and the pain is finally easing. As of February 25, 2026, one of the longest mining capitulations on record is approaching its end, according to CoinDesk's analysis of the hash ribbon indicator. The metric, which compares 30-day and 60-day moving averages of Bitcoin's hash rate, is on the verge of a bullish crossover that has historically aligned with local or major price bottoms.
Bitcoin is trading near $65,000 at the time of writing, roughly 50% below its late November peak of approximately $90,000. The average production cost for miners sits at $66,000, meaning the network has been operating below breakeven for weeks.
Three Months Below the Waterline
The current capitulation began in late November 2025 when Bitcoin's price started its slide from the $90,000 range. As the price dropped, mining revenue fell below operating costs for a growing number of operations. Less efficient miners began shutting down equipment and, critically, selling their BTC reserves to cover electricity bills and debt obligations.
This forced selling creates a feedback loop. Miners dump coins, which pushes the price lower, which puts more miners underwater, which forces more selling. The hash rate drops as machines go offline, and the hash ribbon indicator reflects this decline by showing the 30-day moving average falling below the 60-day moving average.
Three months of sustained capitulation places this event among the longest on record. Since 2011, approximately 20 mining capitulations have occurred. The most notable ones ended in January 2015, December 2018, and December 2022, each marking a major cycle bottom.
What the Hash Ribbon Actually Measures
The hash ribbon is not a sentiment indicator or a survey. It is a direct measurement of computational power committed to the Bitcoin network. When the 30-day moving average of hash rate crosses below the 60-day average, it signals that miners are shutting down en masse. When the 30-day crosses back above the 60-day, it signals that the weakest miners have been flushed out and the network is recovering.
The recovery crossover is the signal that matters. It indicates that surviving miners, typically those with the cheapest energy contracts and most efficient hardware, have absorbed the market share of their departed competitors. The forced selling pressure from capitulating miners has been exhausted.
As of late February, Bitcoin's hash rate is rebounding, pushing the 30-day average back toward the 60-day average. The crossover has not occurred yet, but CoinDesk reports it is imminent.
The $66,000 Production Cost Floor
One of the more striking data points in this capitulation is the relationship between Bitcoin's price and its average production cost. At $66,000 per coin, the cost of mining a single bitcoin exceeds the market price for any miner paying above-average electricity rates.
The last time miners operated below production cost for an extended period was November 2022, when BTC bottomed near $15,500 during the FTX collapse. That capitulation lasted roughly six weeks before the hash ribbon crossed over and the price began its recovery.
The current episode has run twice as long. The extended duration reflects both the severity of the drawdown (50% from peak) and the changed economics of post-halving mining. The April 2024 halving cut the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, meaning miners need a higher price to break even on the same hardware.
Production cost is not a guaranteed price floor, but it has historically acted as one. Miners represent the most cost-sensitive sellers in the Bitcoin ecosystem. When they stop selling because the weak hands have already been shaken out, a significant source of supply pressure disappears.
Why Every Previous Hash Ribbon Recovery Led to a Rally
Since 2011, the hash ribbon recovery signal has fired roughly 20 times. In every case, the price was higher three to six months later. The reasons are mechanical:
Supply exhaustion. Capitulating miners have already sold their reserves. The coins that were going to be dumped have been dumped. Remaining miners hold their BTC rather than sell at a loss.
Difficulty adjustment. When miners go offline, Bitcoin's difficulty adjusts downward, making it cheaper for surviving miners to produce each coin. This improves their margins and removes the incentive to sell.
Market clearing. The miners who shut down were the least efficient operators. Their exit raises the average efficiency of the remaining network, creating a healthier ecosystem.
The pattern is not a guarantee. Past performance in a dataset of 20 events does not constitute statistical certainty. But it is the closest thing the Bitcoin market has to a fundamental indicator, one that measures real economic activity rather than survey data or social media sentiment.
What This Means for BTC Holders and Crypto Card Users
For anyone holding Bitcoin or considering loading a crypto card with BTC, the hash ribbon provides a data point worth watching. If the crossover confirms in the coming days or weeks, historical precedent suggests the worst of the selling pressure may be over.
That does not mean the price cannot go lower. Macro headwinds, including the tariff uncertainty and ETF outflows that have characterized early 2026, could extend the drawdown. But miner-driven sell pressure, which has been one of the most persistent forces pushing BTC lower since November, appears to be fading.
For users of self-custody cards who hold their own keys, the production cost metric also serves as a rough guide to value. When BTC trades below the cost of production, every coin sold by a miner is sold at a loss. That is not a sustainable state, and it tends to resolve through either price recovery or a permanent reduction in network hash rate.
The Broader Mining Landscape After Three Months of Pain
This capitulation has reshaped the mining industry. The miners who survived, companies like MARA, CleanSpark, and Riot Platforms, tend to be publicly traded firms with access to capital markets, low-cost energy contracts, and modern ASIC hardware. Smaller, private operations running older equipment in higher-cost jurisdictions have been squeezed out.
The 15% difficulty surge earlier this month reflected this consolidation. As efficient miners bring capacity back online, difficulty rises, but the network is now running on a leaner, more resilient base.
The hash ribbon recovery, when it confirms, will mark the end of a period that tested the economics of Bitcoin mining more severely than any event since the FTX collapse. Whether it marks a definitive price bottom or just a pause in the broader downtrend will depend on forces outside the mining sector entirely.
FAQ
What is the hash ribbon indicator? The hash ribbon compares the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of Bitcoin's hash rate. When the 30-day crosses below the 60-day, miners are capitulating. When it crosses back above, the capitulation is ending.
How many times has the hash ribbon recovery signal fired? Approximately 20 times since 2011. Each previous occurrence was followed by a price recovery within three to six months.
What is Bitcoin's current production cost? The average production cost is approximately $66,000 per BTC as of February 25, 2026, slightly above the current market price of around $65,000.
Does a hash ribbon recovery guarantee a price bottom? No. The historical track record is strong but based on roughly 20 data points. Macro conditions, regulatory events, and ETF flows can override on-chain signals.
When was the last time miners operated below production cost? November 2022, during the FTX collapse, when BTC bottomed near $15,500. That capitulation lasted about six weeks before the hash ribbon crossed over.
Overview
Bitcoin's three-month mining capitulation, one of the longest on record since 2011, is nearing its end as the hash ribbon indicator approaches a bullish crossover. With BTC trading near $65,000 against an average production cost of $66,000, miners have been operating at a loss for weeks, forcing the weakest operators offline and creating sustained sell pressure. The hash ribbon recovery signal has preceded a price rally every time it has fired in the last 15 years, though the sample size of roughly 20 events means it is not a statistical certainty. The extended duration of this capitulation, twice as long as the FTX-era event, reflects the post-halving economics that require higher prices for miners to break even. If the crossover confirms, the most persistent source of BTC selling pressure since November will have been exhausted.
Recommended Reading
- Bitcoin ETFs Shed $3.8 Billion in Five Weeks as IBIT Drives the Longest Outflow Streak
- Bitcoin Breaks Below $65,000 as $100 Billion Vanishes in a Single Day
- Retail Bitcoin Holders Hit Their Highest Supply Share Since June 2024 as Whales Dump 81,000 BTC
