XRP holders locked in $1.93 billion in realized losses over the past week, marking the largest single-week capitulation event for the token since November 2022, according to on-chain analytics firm Santiment. As of February 22, 2026, XRP trades near $1.42, roughly 61 percent below its all-time high of $3.65 set in July 2025. The question now is whether this wave of forced selling signals the kind of exhaustion that historically precedes a reversal, or whether the damage has further to run.
$1.93 Billion in Pain, Concentrated in Seven Days
A realized loss occurs when a holder sells or transfers tokens at a price below their original acquisition cost. Unlike unrealized losses, which exist only on paper, realized losses represent actual capital destruction: someone bought at a higher price, held through the decline, and finally gave up.
The $1.93 billion figure represents the aggregate net realized loss across the entire XRP network over a rolling seven-day window. That number matters because it captures not just the price drop itself but the behavioral response to it. Holders are not just watching their portfolios bleed. They are actively choosing to exit at a loss, which requires a psychological break from the "hold and hope" strategy that dominated during XRP's run to $3.65.
Santiment's data shows that the previous time this specific threshold was breached was approximately 39 months ago, in November 2022, when the FTX collapse sent shockwaves across every major crypto asset. XRP fell sharply during that period alongside the broader market, and holders capitulated in similar fashion.
The 114 Percent Precedent
What makes the current reading noteworthy beyond its raw size is what followed the last occurrence. After the November 2022 realized loss spike, XRP proceeded to gain 114 percent over the following eight months.
The logic behind the pattern is straightforward in theory, even if messy in practice. When a critical mass of holders sell at a loss, the remaining supply shifts into the hands of buyers who entered at lower prices and have higher conviction. Selling pressure dries up not because sentiment improves but because the sellers have already sold. Santiment frames it this way: "If many weak hands have already sold, there may be fewer sellers left to push prices lower."
This does not guarantee a bottom. The November 2022 spike preceded a multi-month grind before XRP began its actual recovery. The signal identifies a zone of maximum pain, not a precise turning point.
A 61 Percent Drawdown With No Shortage of Catalysts
XRP's decline from $3.65 to $1.42 has been driven by a confluence of factors that extend well beyond token-specific dynamics. The broader crypto market has been under sustained pressure, with total market capitalization round-tripping the entire 2024-2025 rally. Bitcoin ETF outflows have hit every trading day in recent sessions, and the Fear and Greed index has plunged to levels rivaling the FTX collapse and the COVID crash.
For XRP specifically, the macro backdrop has collided with fading momentum from catalysts that were supposed to sustain the rally. The SEC lawsuit resolution, which cleared legal uncertainty around XRP's status, generated an initial surge but has since been fully priced in. Cumulative XRP ETF inflows of approximately $1.3 billion have failed to provide a floor as broader risk appetite deteriorated.
The result is a 70 percent decline from the July 2025 peak, with the steepest portion concentrated in February 2026.
What the On-Chain Data Actually Measures
Realized profit/loss metrics track the difference between the price at which a token was last moved on-chain and the price at which it moves again. When the aggregate shifts heavily negative, it means the majority of on-chain transfers are happening at prices below the previous transfer price.
This is distinct from exchange trading volume, which can be inflated by market makers and arbitrage bots. Realized loss spikes on-chain capture genuine holder behavior: long-term wallets finally capitulating, short-term speculators cutting losses, or leveraged positions being liquidated and settled.
The $1.93 billion figure also needs to be understood relative to XRP's current market cap of roughly $87 billion. At approximately 2.2 percent of total market cap, the weekly realized loss represents a significant but not catastrophic purge. For comparison, during the November 2022 event, XRP's market cap was substantially smaller, meaning the same dollar-amount loss represented a larger proportional hit.
What XRP Holders Should Watch Next
The contrarian case rests on seller exhaustion. If the bulk of weak-handed holders have already exited, the remaining supply base is theoretically more resilient to further declines. Even modest buying pressure, whether from retail accumulation, ETF inflows, or short covering, could generate outsized price moves on reduced liquidity.
However, Santiment explicitly cautions that "extreme fear peaks before prices actually bottom." The realized loss spike increases the probability of a bounce without guaranteeing one. Holders who bought during the $3.00-$3.65 range and have not yet sold represent a potential overhead supply that could cap any recovery attempt.
For crypto card users holding XRP as a spending asset, the practical implications are immediate. A 61 percent drawdown means that cashback rewards earned in XRP during the bull market have lost more than half their dollar value. Holders using cards like the Uphold debit card or other XRP-compatible products face the classic crypto spending dilemma: converting to fiat locks in the loss, while holding exposes them to further downside.
The Broader Capitulation Wave
XRP's realized loss spike does not exist in isolation. The entire altcoin market has been experiencing historically elevated sell pressure, with net capital outflows reaching a five-year extreme of -$209 billion across 13 months. Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has also fallen below 1 for the first time since the LUNA crash, indicating that even veteran BTC holders are selling at a loss.
The synchronization of capitulation signals across multiple assets and holder cohorts suggests this is not an XRP-specific phenomenon but a market-wide repricing event. Whether the current washout marks the deepest point of the drawdown depends less on any single on-chain metric and more on macro factors: the Federal Reserve's rate path, tariff policy uncertainty, and whether institutional allocators begin to view current prices as entry points rather than exit ramps.
For now, the $1.93 billion in realized losses tells us one thing with certainty: a large number of XRP holders have given up. History says that is often when things start to turn. But history also says the turn can take months, and the path from capitulation to recovery is never a straight line.
FAQ
What is a realized loss in crypto? A realized loss occurs when a holder sells or transfers tokens at a price lower than their acquisition cost. Unlike unrealized (paper) losses, realized losses represent actual capital exits from the network, captured on-chain when tokens move between wallets.
How does the $1.93B XRP realized loss compare to previous events? It matches the magnitude of the November 2022 realized loss spike that occurred during the FTX collapse. That was the previous record for XRP's weekly realized loss metric. Following that event, XRP gained 114 percent over the next eight months.
Does a realized loss spike guarantee a price bottom? No. Santiment notes that extreme fear tends to peak before prices actually bottom, meaning the realized loss spike increases the probability of a bounce but does not pinpoint the exact turning point. The recovery after the 2022 spike took months to materialize.
What does this mean for XRP holders using crypto cards? Holders spending XRP through crypto cards face reduced purchasing power due to the 61 percent drawdown from the July 2025 high of $3.65. Cashback rewards earned in XRP during the bull run have lost more than half their dollar value. Stablecoin-funded cards offer a way to avoid this volatility while still spending from a crypto wallet.
Overview
XRP's $1.93 billion weekly realized loss spike is the largest since the FTX crash in November 2022, according to Santiment on-chain data. The token has fallen approximately 61 percent from its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65 to around $1.42 as of February 22, 2026. The last time this metric hit the same level, XRP rallied 114 percent over eight months. However, the contrarian signal comes with caveats: seller exhaustion increases bounce probability but does not guarantee a bottom, and the broader market remains under pressure from ETF outflows, macro uncertainty, and a synchronized altcoin capitulation wave. For XRP holders, the data confirms that a significant portion of weak-handed supply has already exited, shifting the remaining base toward higher-conviction participants.
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