Trump Declares a Full-Scale Operation Against Iran
President Donald Trump confirmed on February 28, 2026 that the United States has launched a large-scale military operation against Iran, according to DB News on X. "Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating threats from the Iranian regime," Trump stated. The confirmation came hours after Israel launched its own preventive strike on Iran earlier the same day, escalating a coordinated campaign into a full joint military operation.
US strikes are being carried out by air and sea, with more than 500 aircraft and dozens of warships, including two nuclear aircraft carriers, concentrated in the Middle East, according to Reuters via CNBC. The operation, which Israeli officials have codenamed "Lion's Roar," is targeting sites in Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah. Explosions were reported across downtown Tehran, including areas near Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's offices, though he was reportedly moved to a secure location beforehand. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared an immediate state of emergency across all areas of Israel.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin has dropped to approximately $63,000, down roughly 3% from $65,500 in a matter of hours. $209 million in long positions were liquidated within an hour as leveraged traders scrambled for exits.
From Israel Solo Strike to US Joint Operation in Six Hours
The day began with Israel launching a preventive strike on Iran around 06:15 UTC, which triggered the first $100 million in crypto liquidations within 15 minutes. That strike, while significant, left open the question of whether the US would directly participate. Trump's confirmation hours later removed that ambiguity.
The escalation sequence matters for markets. Israel acting alone suggested a contained conflict with historical precedent: the June 2025 strikes lasted 12 days before a ceasefire. The US entering the operation signals a different scale entirely. More than 500 aircraft, two carrier groups, and strikes across five Iranian cities represent the largest Western military operation in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Israeli defense officials told Al Jazeera that the attacks had been planned for months, with launch dates decided weeks ago, even as US-Iran nuclear negotiations were still active in Geneva. The talks, led by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, collapsed after the US demanded total destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities and the shipment of all highly enriched uranium to a third country. Israeli officials stated the "initial phase" of the joint attack is planned to last four days.
An Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran was preparing "crushing" retaliation, a phrase that introduces the scenario markets fear most: a sustained tit-for-tat cycle that disrupts global energy supply chains.
Why Bitcoin Breaks Lower on Weekends and War
Bitcoin fell from $65,500 to approximately $63,000 after Trump's confirmation, extending the decline that began with Israel's earlier strike. The total damage for the day: roughly $75 billion wiped from total crypto market capitalization within hours.
The weekend timing is the critical multiplier. When geopolitical shocks hit on a Saturday, equity markets, bond markets, and commodity futures are closed. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto assets trade 24/7, making them the only large, liquid assets available for traders to express risk-off positioning. This turns crypto into a pressure valve for broader market fear.
The pattern is not new. During the June 2025 Israel-Iran conflict, Bitcoin dropped 6% from $110,000 to $103,000 over a weekend before equity markets could open and absorb selling pressure. The difference now is structural: Bitcoin at $63,000 is 50% below its October 2025 peak, ETF outflows have been net negative for five consecutive weeks, and the Fear and Greed Index was already near extreme fear before the strikes began.
Altcoins took deeper hits. Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin each dropped more than 6%, consistent with their higher beta to Bitcoin during risk-off events.
Oil, Inflation, and the Second-Order Crypto Impact
Brent crude had already climbed past $72.50 per barrel before the US strikes were confirmed, up 2.5% on escalation fears. Goldman Sachs warned earlier this week that Brent could breach $100 per barrel if sustained military action disrupts Iranian oil supply or threatens the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil transits daily.
For crypto markets, the oil spike creates a second-order headwind through inflation expectations. Higher energy prices feed directly into CPI and PPI readings, which were already running hot: January's PPI came in at 2.9% year-over-year versus the expected 2.6%. Core PPI rose to 3.6%. If oil sustains above $80, the Federal Reserve's already delayed rate-cutting cycle gets pushed further out, removing the monetary easing catalyst that crypto bulls have been counting on for relief.
The math is straightforward. Higher oil means higher inflation means higher-for-longer interest rates means less appetite for risk assets. Bitcoin's correlation with rate expectations has tightened since the 2024 halving, and a sustained oil shock would tighten it further.
What Crypto Holders Should Watch This Weekend
The next 48 hours will determine whether this becomes a contained multi-day operation or the opening phase of a prolonged conflict. Three indicators to monitor:
Iran's retaliation timeline. Tehran has promised a "crushing" response. If retaliatory strikes materialize, expect another wave of liquidations. The June 2025 precedent saw Iran launch 300+ drones and missiles at Israel within 72 hours of the initial strike. A similar response here, with US forces now directly involved, would escalate well beyond what markets have priced in.
$60,000 Bitcoin. This level has been flagged as a potential liquidation cascade trigger. If Bitcoin breaks below $60,000, the forced selling from margin calls could accelerate the decline toward $55,000 to $58,000, the range where significant institutional cost basis clusters sit from early 2025 ETF accumulation.
Oil above $80. A sustained breach of $80 Brent crude shifts the macro narrative from "temporary geopolitical premium" to "structural inflation resurgence." That distinction matters for how long rate-cut expectations get pushed out, which matters for how long risk assets stay under pressure.
For self-custody card users, this situation underscores why holding assets in your own wallet matters during geopolitical turmoil. If exchanges face operational disruptions or freeze withdrawals due to sanctions compliance, custodial card users could lose access to their funds. Self-custodial options from providers like MetaMask, Gnosis Pay, and Ready keep spending capability in the holder's hands regardless of exchange uptime.
The Broader Playbook for Geopolitical Crypto Shocks
History offers a rough template. The June 2025 Israel-Iran conflict caused a 6% Bitcoin drawdown, $1 billion in cumulative liquidations over 24 hours, and a full recovery within two weeks of the ceasefire. The key variable was duration: short conflicts create buying opportunities, extended conflicts create sustained bear pressure.
This operation is structurally larger. US involvement means the conflict cannot be resolved through the same backchannel diplomacy that ended the June 2025 exchange. Iran's options for retaliation expand when the adversary is the United States rather than Israel alone, and the economic disruption potential through Hormuz shipping lanes affects every global market, not just Middle Eastern equities.
The crypto market has been pricing in macro headwinds all month: tariff uncertainty, hot inflation data, ETF outflows, and the Nvidia earnings disappointment. The Iran strikes add a geopolitical risk premium on top of an already stressed market. The question is whether $63,000 Bitcoin reflects the worst case or merely the opening bid.
FAQ
How far did Bitcoin drop after Trump confirmed the strikes? Bitcoin fell from approximately $65,500 to $63,000, a decline of roughly 3% to 4%, within hours of Trump's confirmation. This extended the earlier decline triggered by Israel's solo strike, which had already pushed BTC from around $65,800 to $64,000.
How much was liquidated in crypto markets? Approximately $209 million in long positions were liquidated within one hour of the US strike confirmation. Combined with the $100 million from the earlier Israeli strike, total liquidations for the day are tracking well above $300 million.
Is this the same as the Israel strike from earlier today? No. Israel launched a preventive strike independently around 06:15 UTC. Hours later, Trump confirmed that the US had launched its own operation against Iran, making it a joint US-Israel military campaign targeting multiple cities across Iran with over 500 aircraft and two carrier groups.
What happens if oil hits $100? Goldman Sachs has warned that Brent crude could breach $100 per barrel if strikes disrupt Iranian oil supply or threaten the Strait of Hormuz. This would likely trigger a broader risk-off move across all asset classes, with crypto facing additional downward pressure from rising inflation expectations and delayed rate cuts.
Overview
President Trump confirmed on February 28, 2026 that the United States has launched a large-scale military operation against Iran, escalating from Israel's earlier solo preventive strike into a full joint campaign. Over 500 aircraft and two carrier groups are involved, targeting sites across Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah. Bitcoin dropped to approximately $63,000, $209 million in crypto longs were liquidated within an hour, and roughly $75 billion was erased from total crypto market capitalization. Oil prices surged past $72.50 with analysts warning of a potential move to $100 if the Strait of Hormuz is threatened. Iran has vowed "crushing" retaliation. The next 48 hours will determine whether this remains a contained operation or escalates into a prolonged conflict that reshapes macro conditions for risk assets.
Recommended Reading
- Israel Launches a Preventive Strike on Iran and $100 Million in Crypto Longs Evaporate in 15 Minutes
- The Yen Carry Trade Just Unwound Hard Enough to Trigger Margin Calls Across Risk Books, and Bitcoin Took the Hit
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