A 172-Year-Old Bank Rewrites Its Crypto Playbook Overnight
Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick, widely regarded as one of the most influential institutional voices in digital asset research, has issued a sweeping downgrade across four major cryptocurrencies. The bank's global head of digital assets research slashed his XRP year-end target by 65%, from $8 to $2.80, as of February 16, 2026. But XRP was not alone. Bitcoin's target dropped from $150,000 to $100,000, Ethereum from $7,000 to $4,000, and Solana from $250 to $135.
"Recent price action for digital assets has been challenging, to say the least," Kendrick wrote. "We expect further declines near-term and we lower our forecasts across the asset class."
The scale of the revision is hard to overstate. Standard Chartered's December 2025 upgrade had been one of the most bullish institutional calls on XRP, helping fuel a wave of retail enthusiasm. Three months later, that thesis has been gutted by persistent outflows, macro headwinds, and a market that refuses to cooperate.
Why XRP Took the Hardest Hit
Among the four assets, XRP absorbed the largest percentage cut. The 65% reduction reflects what Kendrick describes as a collapse in the institutional accumulation thesis that originally supported the $8 target.
XRP spot ETF inflows peaked at $1.6 billion on January 5, 2026. By February 13, that figure had declined roughly 40% to approximately $1.0 billion. The initial euphoria around spot XRP ETF approvals in late 2025 has given way to a reality where institutional capital is not flowing in at the pace that would justify premium valuations.
XRP itself briefly touched $1.16, a 15-month low representing a 59% decline from its July all-time high. At the time of writing, it trades closer to $1.30, but the damage to the bullish narrative is significant. The token that was supposed to ride a regulatory tailwind into single-digit dollar territory is instead fighting to hold above its 2025 lows.
The Numbers Behind the Broader Downgrade
Kendrick did not single out XRP. The entire crypto complex was repriced:
| Asset | Previous Target | New Target | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | $8.00 | $2.80 | -65% |
| BTC | $150,000 | $100,000 | -33% |
| ETH | $7,000 | $4,000 | -43% |
| SOL | $250 | $135 | -46% |
Bitcoin has fallen 28% over the past month to approximately $60,000 as of mid-February 2026. The fourth consecutive week of crypto fund outflows reported by CoinShares, totaling $173 million in the most recent period, confirms that institutional conviction is weakening across the board.
The common thread in Kendrick's analysis is that the macro environment, including persistent inflation concerns and the Federal Reserve's reluctance to cut rates as aggressively as markets expected, has removed the liquidity tailwind that was supposed to propel crypto through 2026.
What XRP Holders Should Watch Next
Kendrick identifies the Clarity Act as the primary catalyst for a sustained recovery. The pending U.S. Senate legislation would establish the first comprehensive market structure framework for digital assets, including clear definitions for which tokens qualify as securities versus commodities. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested the bill's passage could stabilize markets.
For XRP holders specifically, the Clarity Act matters because it would likely settle the residual legal ambiguity around XRP's classification. While Ripple won a partial victory in its SEC case in 2023, the lack of comprehensive legislation means the token still carries more regulatory uncertainty than BTC or ETH.
Beyond the Clarity Act, watch these three metrics:
- XRP ETF weekly flow data. A reversal from outflows to sustained inflows above $100 million per week would signal renewed institutional interest.
- Ripple Payments (formerly ODL) volume. If cross-border payment volume through RippleNet continues growing despite the price drop, it suggests the token's utility thesis is intact even if the speculative premium has evaporated.
- Stablecoin supply expansion. Kendrick's note referenced stablecoin growth as a positive long-term structural driver. If Circle and Tether continue expanding supply, it indicates capital entering the broader crypto ecosystem that could eventually rotate into risk assets.
How This Repricing Ripples Through Crypto Wallets and Cards
A market-wide repricing of this magnitude does not stay confined to portfolio dashboards. It reaches into the everyday mechanics of how crypto holders spend, save, and earn.
For users of crypto cards that fund spending with token balances, a 28% BTC drawdown or a 59% XRP crash means the purchasing power loaded onto those cards has eroded substantially. Users who earned cashback rewards in XRP or SOL over the past six months have watched those rewards lose more than half their dollar value.
Cards that require staking tokens for tier benefits face a compounding problem. A user who locked CRO, PLU, or xPlace tokens to unlock premium perks is now underwater on the stake itself, which means the cashback needs to first recover the staking loss before generating any real return. This is the price risk that every staking-gated card carries, and a downturn this severe makes the math painful.
Crypto-backed credit lines from providers like Nexo face margin pressure. As collateral values drop, loan-to-value ratios tighten, and some users face liquidation or forced top-ups. The silver lining: self-custody card holders at least avoid counterparty risk during volatile periods, since their funds are not locked in a centralized platform that could freeze withdrawals.
FAQ
How much did Standard Chartered cut its XRP price target? Geoffrey Kendrick reduced the XRP year-end 2026 target from $8.00 to $2.80, a 65% cut. The revision reflects declining ETF inflows and broader macro headwinds affecting risk assets.
Were other cryptocurrencies downgraded too? Yes. Bitcoin was cut from $150,000 to $100,000 (-33%), Ethereum from $7,000 to $4,000 (-43%), and Solana from $250 to $135 (-46%). The downgrade was across the entire crypto asset class.
What catalyst could reverse the downturn? Kendrick points to the Clarity Act, pending U.S. legislation that would establish a comprehensive market structure framework for digital assets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated its passage could help stabilize crypto markets.
How far has XRP fallen from its all-time high? XRP briefly hit $1.16 in February 2026, a 59% decline from its July all-time high. It has since recovered slightly but remains well below the levels that supported Standard Chartered's original $8 target.
Does this affect Standard Chartered's long-term view on XRP? No. Despite the sharp near-term cut, the bank's analysts maintain a constructive long-term view on XRP's role in cross-border payments, stablecoin infrastructure, and tokenized asset settlement.
Overview
Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick has issued his most bearish crypto revision in recent memory, cutting XRP's year-end target by 65% from $8 to $2.80 while also slashing BTC, ETH, and SOL forecasts by 33% to 46%. The downgrade is rooted in persistent ETF outflows (XRP ETF inflows down 40% from their January peak), a 28% Bitcoin drawdown, and macro conditions that have removed the liquidity tailwind the crypto market was counting on. Kendrick sees the Clarity Act as the primary recovery catalyst but expects further near-term declines before any policy-driven inflection.
Recommended Reading
- Crypto Funds Bleed for a Fourth Straight Week as $3.7 Billion Exits, but Europe and Altcoins Tell a Different Story
- The CLARITY Act Explained: What It Does, Why It Stalled, and What Happens Next
- Harvard Trims Its Bitcoin ETF by 21% and Opens a First-Ever $87 Million Ethereum Position
