Nasdaq MRX, one of Nasdaq's three options exchanges, filed a proposed rule change with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on March 3, 2026, to list cash-settled binary contracts it calls "Outcome Related Options." Priced between 1 cent and $1, these contracts would let traders place yes-or-no bets on events tied to the Nasdaq-100 and Nasdaq-100 Micro indexes, covering stocks like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Tesla.
The filing, designated SR-MRX-2026-05, does something no prediction market operator has attempted at this scale: it routes binary event contracts through the SEC rather than the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has been the default regulator for platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and CME's event contracts. That jurisdictional choice turns a product filing into a regulatory precedent.
Wall Street Wants the Prediction Market, but Through Its Own Front Door
Prediction market trading volume hit $63.5 billion in 2025, a fourfold increase year over year. Polymarket alone attracted a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange) last October at a reported $9 billion valuation. CME Group partnered with FanDuel for event contracts. DraftKings operates prediction contracts across 38 states and is targeting $10 billion in annual revenue. Goldman Sachs is reportedly exploring opportunities in the space.
Nasdaq's filing signals that the world's second-largest exchange operator does not intend to sit this out. The contracts would function identically to what Polymarket and Kalshi already offer: a trader buys a "yes" contract at, say, 65 cents if they believe Nvidia will close above $200 on Friday. If it does, the contract settles at $1 for a 35-cent profit. If not, it expires worthless.
The difference is infrastructure. Nasdaq MRX operates under SEC oversight, clears through the Options Clearing Corporation, and connects to the same brokerage accounts that retail investors already use for stocks and options. No crypto wallet required. No CFTC-regulated exchange membership. Just a regular brokerage account at Schwab, Fidelity, or Interactive Brokers.
The SEC vs. CFTC Jurisdiction Question That Could Reshape Event Markets
This is where the filing gets consequential beyond Nasdaq's own product launch.
Prediction markets have operated almost exclusively under CFTC jurisdiction. Kalshi is a CFTC-designated contract market. Polymarket operates offshore but structures its contracts as CFTC-style event derivatives. Gemini received CFTC approval in December 2025 to operate as a Designated Contract Market. Coinbase launched its own prediction market product under similar regulatory assumptions.
Nasdaq's filing breaks that pattern. By structuring its binary contracts as securities rather than derivatives, Nasdaq is asserting that the SEC, not the CFTC, has jurisdiction over these products when they are tied to financial indexes.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins acknowledged the overlap directly: "A security is a security regardless of how it is, and some of the nuance with prediction markets depends on wording and what exactly is being done."
CFTC Chair Michael Selig drew a sharper line, emphasizing that "the CFTC and SEC are very different regulators" with fundamentally different mandates: one focused on capital markets protection, the other on risk mitigation and hedging.
The practical implication: functionally identical products could soon operate under two entirely different regulatory frameworks depending on which exchange lists them. A Kalshi contract on "Will Nvidia close above $200?" would be a CFTC-regulated derivative. A Nasdaq MRX contract on the same outcome would be an SEC-regulated security. Same bet, different rules, different disclosure requirements, different margin regimes.
Three Exchanges, Three Pricing Models
Nasdaq is not filing for a single exchange. The proposed rule change covers all three of its options platforms, each with a different market structure:
Nasdaq MRX would use a price-time priority model, meaning orders execute on a first-come, first-served basis. This is the standard matching engine used by most equity exchanges.
Nasdaq NOM and Nasdaq PHLX would incorporate pricing models that reward participants for providing liquidity, similar to the maker-taker fee structures common in crypto exchange design. Market makers posting bids and offers would receive rebates, while takers removing liquidity would pay fees.
Running the same product across three exchanges with different microstructures gives Nasdaq data on which model attracts the most volume, a strategy it already uses for traditional equity options.
What This Means for Crypto Prediction Markets
Crypto-native prediction platforms should be paying attention to two dynamics.
First, distribution. Nasdaq connects to every major US brokerage. The moment these contracts go live, any Schwab or Fidelity customer can trade them without downloading a new app, funding a crypto wallet, or navigating KYC on an unfamiliar platform. That is the kind of distribution advantage that no crypto-native platform can match through marketing spend alone.
Second, regulatory legitimacy. If the SEC approves these contracts, it creates a template that other regulated exchanges can copy. Cboe is already preparing its own "all-or-nothing" contracts tied to financial benchmarks, with a reported second-quarter launch target. The era of prediction markets being a crypto-first niche is ending. They are becoming a standard product on traditional exchanges.
For platforms like Coinbase and Crypto.com that have launched their own prediction market products, the competitive pressure intensifies. These exchanges were early movers in bringing event contracts to crypto users, but they now face incumbents with deeper liquidity pools, lower regulatory risk, and built-in brokerage distribution.
The one area where crypto prediction markets retain an edge is scope. Nasdaq's filing explicitly excludes bets on sports, culture, or politics, limiting contracts to index-related financial outcomes. Polymarket and Kalshi can offer contracts on elections, geopolitical events, and cultural moments that a securities exchange cannot. That scope advantage may narrow over time if regulators expand what traditional exchanges can list, but for now it is real.
The Broader Convergence of TradFi and Crypto Market Structure
Nasdaq's filing is part of a larger pattern. Traditional finance is absorbing the product innovations that crypto pioneered (tokenization, 24/7 trading, binary event contracts) while stripping out the parts it does not want (self-custody, permissionless access, pseudonymity).
This convergence is visible across multiple fronts. Tokenized US Treasuries crossed $10 billion in market cap. Morgan Stanley filed for a national trust bank charter to custody, trade, and stake crypto. Mastercard is hiring a Director of Crypto Flows to build DeFi rails into its payment network. Each move follows the same logic: take a crypto-native innovation, repackage it with traditional regulatory wrappers, and distribute it through existing channels.
For crypto card users, the prediction market convergence matters because it signals which direction regulators are leaning. Products that can fit within existing securities or derivatives frameworks will get approved. Products that require new regulatory categories will wait longer. The GENIUS Act stablecoin rulemaking follows the same pattern: regulators are building on existing frameworks rather than creating new ones from scratch.
FAQ
What are Nasdaq's Outcome Related Options? Cash-settled binary contracts priced between 1 cent and $1 that let traders make yes-or-no predictions on events tied to the Nasdaq-100 index. They function like prediction market contracts but are structured as securities under SEC jurisdiction.
How is this different from Polymarket or Kalshi? Polymarket and Kalshi operate under CFTC jurisdiction as event derivatives markets. Nasdaq's contracts would be SEC-regulated securities listed on traditional options exchanges, accessible through standard brokerage accounts without needing a crypto wallet or separate exchange account.
When will these contracts launch? The SEC must review and approve the proposed rule change before Nasdaq can list these contracts. No specific approval timeline has been announced. Cboe is reportedly targeting a second-quarter 2026 launch for its competing binary contracts.
Can I bet on elections or sports through these contracts? No. Nasdaq's filing explicitly limits contracts to Nasdaq-100 index-related outcomes. It excludes bets on sports, culture, or politics. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi retain exclusive access to those event types for now.
Why does it matter that Nasdaq filed with the SEC instead of the CFTC? It creates a jurisdictional precedent. Functionally identical binary contracts could operate under two different regulatory frameworks depending on which exchange lists them, potentially leading to regulatory arbitrage and forcing clearer coordination between the SEC and CFTC.
Overview
Nasdaq MRX filed with the SEC on March 3, 2026, to list binary "Outcome Related Options" on the Nasdaq-100 index, priced between 1 cent and $1. The filing routes prediction market products through SEC jurisdiction rather than the CFTC, which has been the default regulator for platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. The contracts would be available across all three Nasdaq options exchanges (MRX, NOM, and PHLX), each with different market microstructures. Prediction market volume hit $63.5 billion in 2025, and Nasdaq's entry, alongside Cboe's competing plans, signals that binary event contracts are moving from crypto-native platforms to traditional exchange infrastructure. The jurisdictional split between SEC and CFTC oversight of functionally identical products could force new coordination protocols between the two agencies.
Recommended Reading
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Sources
- CoinTelegraph: Nasdaq files for prediction market-style options on Nasdaq-100
- CoinDesk: Nasdaq follows Cboe joining world of binary bets as prediction market craze hits Wall Street
- CryptoBriefing: Nasdaq files to launch binary options on Nasdaq 100
- DeFi Rate: Nasdaq Binary Options Filing Sets Up SEC vs. CFTC Coordination Test
- Decrypt: Nasdaq Wants a Piece of the Prediction Market Biz Too
