Bitcoin has never opened a year this badly. Through the first 50 days of 2026, as of February 20, BTC is down roughly 23%, the worst start to any calendar year on record according to CoinDesk data. The decline has now stretched across two consecutive months: January closed down 10%, and February is tracking at negative 15%, a back-to-back monthly losing streak that has never happened before in Bitcoin's history to start a year.
Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted net outflows on every single trading day this week, with Cointelegraph flagging the streak as institutional appetite continues to evaporate. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has cratered to 9, deep in "Extreme Fear" territory, its lowest reading since the post-FTX capitulation.
The Numbers Behind the Worst Opening on Record
The severity of the drawdown stands out even against Bitcoin's most brutal historical bear phases. While double-digit January drops occurred in 2015, 2016, and 2018, each was followed by a positive February. The 2026 pattern, a 10% January loss compounding into a 15% February decline, has no precedent.
According to Checkonchain analytics, Bitcoin's performance index currently sits at 0.77. For context, a typical down-year benchmark reads 0.84 at the 50-day mark. The current reading suggests 2026 is tracking worse than the average bad year, not just below expectations for what many assumed would be a post-halving recovery phase.
The 2025 year itself closed with a 17% decline, making it one of the worst post-election years on record for Bitcoin. That weakness has now carried forward into 2026 with no relief in sight. BTC was hovering near $67,780 at the time of writing, struggling to hold above the $67,000 level that has served as fragile support through mid-February.
Five Straight Days of ETF Bleeding
The daily ETF flow data tells a story of steady institutional retreat. On February 18, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $133.3 million in net outflows, led by BlackRock's IBIT shedding $84.2 million and Fidelity's FBTC losing $49 million. The following day brought another $165.8 million in withdrawals, with IBIT again responsible for the lion's share at $164.1 million. By February 20, outflows had reached approximately $175 million according to The Coin Republic, extending the streak to every trading day of the week.
The weekly damage adds up to roughly $423 million, pushing the year-to-date outflow total past $2.7 billion. Combined with the $4.57 billion that bled out in November and December 2025, the three-month cumulative outflow now exceeds $7 billion.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings have declined by approximately 100,300 BTC since their October peak, falling to about 1.26 million BTC. That is the largest drawdown of the current market cycle, and it is happening while the total assets under management across all 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs still sit at $83.6 billion, representing 6.3% of Bitcoin's entire market capitalization.
Solana ETFs Buck the Trend
One corner of the crypto ETF market is quietly defying the carnage. Solana spot ETFs posted $2.4 million in net inflows on February 18, led by Bitwise's BSOL fund attracting $1.5 million. Cumulative Solana ETF inflows have now reached nearly $880 million.
The divergence is not trivial. While Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs hemorrhage capital, Solana and XRP funds have attracted fresh money, suggesting that institutional investors are rotating within crypto rather than exiting the asset class entirely. One report noted that institutions reduced Bitcoin and Ethereum positions by 39.4% and 27.2% respectively while simultaneously establishing $261 million in new Solana and XRP ETF positions across ten different products.
Ethereum ETFs also bled $41.8 million on February 18, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for nearly $30 million of the outflow. ETH itself has been trading below $2,000 and struggling to build momentum. XRP funds lost $2.2 million, despite the token's relative resilience in recent weeks.
What Crypto Card Holders Should Know
Market drawdowns of this magnitude create real consequences for anyone using crypto for everyday spending. Holders of cards tied to volatile assets like BTC or ETH face a direct hit: the purchasing power of their loaded balances shrinks with the market. A cashback rewards payment earned in BTC last month is now worth 15% less in dollar terms.
This is precisely the scenario where stablecoin-funded cards prove their value. Cards like the Bybit card or RedotPay that allow USDC and USDT spending insulate holders from price swings entirely. Your $500 balance stays at $500 regardless of what Bitcoin does.
For holders who remain bullish long-term, self-custody options carry an additional advantage during periods of market stress. When centralized platforms face withdrawal pressure, as happened during the FTX collapse, self-custody card users maintain full control of their funds. The current environment, with its sustained institutional outflows and extreme fear readings, is a reminder of why counterparty risk matters.
The Macro Backdrop Fueling the Exit
The ETF outflows are not happening in a vacuum. Several macro headwinds have converged to pressure risk assets broadly:
The Federal Reserve's January 2026 minutes revealed that several officials remain open to rate hikes, a hawkish signal that sent Bitcoin below $66,500 at the time. U.S. Q4 2025 GDP came in at just 1.4%, missing the 3.0% consensus by half, creating a stagflationary backdrop that historically punishes speculative assets.
Trade policy uncertainty has compounded the pressure. While the Supreme Court struck down Trump's IEEPA tariffs, the administration has since invoked Section 122 to implement a 10% global tariff, keeping geopolitical risk elevated.
The combination of sticky inflation expectations, rising real yields, and trade disruption has pushed the dollar higher and risk appetite lower, exactly the recipe for Bitcoin weakness. CNBC noted that despite the severity of the drawdown, the outflow pattern does not yet signal "crypto winter" investor panic, but rather a measured de-risking that could reverse if macro conditions improve.
$53 Billion in Cumulative Inflows Still Intact
For all the alarm around daily outflows, the longer view offers perspective. Since their launch in January 2024, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted a cumulative $53 billion in net inflows, demolishing every pre-launch forecast. The recent $7 billion in outflows represents roughly 13% of that total, a meaningful but not catastrophic reversal.
The question is whether the outflow streak has reached exhaustion or is accelerating. Technical indicators show an oversold RSI condition, and on-chain data suggests whale accumulation is quietly picking up even as ETF investors sell. If institutional capital is simply taking profits or hedging while larger holders accumulate at lower prices, the current drawdown could set the stage for a sharp reversal.
But if the macro headwinds intensify, particularly if the Fed follows through on rate hike rhetoric, the $53 billion cumulative floor could face a more serious test.
FAQ
How much have Bitcoin ETFs lost this week? Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows on every trading day during the week of February 17-21, 2026, with daily outflows ranging from $133 million to $175 million. The weekly total reached approximately $423 million.
Is this the worst start to a year for Bitcoin? Yes. Bitcoin is down 23% through the first 50 days of 2026, the worst opening to any calendar year in its history. It is also the first time BTC has posted consecutive monthly declines in both January and February.
Why are Solana ETFs still seeing inflows? Institutional investors appear to be rotating within the crypto asset class rather than exiting entirely. Solana ETFs attracted $2.4 million in net inflows on February 18 while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs bled a combined $175 million, suggesting selective positioning toward assets with different risk profiles.
What does a Fear and Greed Index of 9 mean? A score of 9 out of 100 indicates "Extreme Fear," the lowest tier on the index. Historically, extreme fear readings have preceded both continued declines and sharp reversals, making them a contrarian signal rather than a directional one.
Should I switch to stablecoin cards during a drawdown? If you are using a crypto card funded by volatile assets like BTC or ETH, your spending power declines with the market. Stablecoin-funded cards (USDC, USDT) maintain a 1:1 dollar peg regardless of market conditions, offering stability during drawdowns without requiring you to sell positions.
Overview
Bitcoin's 23% decline through the first 50 days of 2026 marks the worst start to any year in the asset's history, compounded by spot ETF outflows hitting every trading day this week. The cumulative damage, roughly $7 billion in outflows over three months, has pushed the Fear and Greed Index to 9 and ETF holdings to their largest drawdown of the current cycle. Yet $53 billion in cumulative net inflows remain intact, and Solana ETFs continue attracting capital, suggesting rotation rather than total capitulation. For crypto card users, the takeaway is practical: stablecoin-funded cards shield spending power during drawdowns, and self-custody options reduce counterparty exposure when institutional flows turn negative.
Recommended Reading
- Bitcoin ETFs Are Sitting on $53 Billion in Net Inflows After Two Years
- Fed Minutes Reveal Several Officials Open to Rate Hikes as Bitcoin Slides Below $66,500
- Coinbase Custodies 80 Percent of US Crypto ETF Assets After $31 Billion in Inflows
Sources
- CoinDesk: Bitcoin Logs Worst Ever Start to a Year Through First 50 Days
- CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ether, XRP ETFs Bleed While Solana Bucks Outflow Trend
- The Coin Republic: ETF Outflows Soar as BlackRock Leads Declines
- CNBC: Bitcoin Price Crash ETF Flows Not Signaling Crypto Winter
- Benzinga: Bitcoin Down Over 20% in 2026
