The search term "Bitcoin going to zero" hit a perfect 100 on Google Trends in the United States during the week of February 13, 2026, the highest reading ever recorded for the query. As of February 22, 2026, Bitcoin trades near $68,000, roughly 46 percent below its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 5, its lowest mark in the index's history, deep in "extreme fear" territory.
For contrarian traders, a spike like this is supposed to be a buy signal. In 2021 and 2022, it was. This time, the data tells a more complicated story.
The US Is Panicking, but the Rest of the World Is Not
The most striking detail in the Google Trends data is the geographic divergence. While US searches for "Bitcoin to zero" hit 100, the global score for the same query sits at just 38, well below its own peak of 100 in August 2025. That means fear is concentrated domestically rather than reflecting a worldwide capitulation event.
The US-specific catalysts are easy to identify. President Trump's Section 122 tariff escalation, rising tensions with Iran, and a broad risk-off rotation in domestic equities have dominated the macro narrative for weeks. Retail investors in the US appear to be reacting to those headlines more acutely than holders in Asia or Europe. CoinDesk noted that the divergence "suggests elevated retail anxiety domestically, but lacks the worldwide confirmation typical of market capitulation events."
This matters because the strongest contrarian reversals in Bitcoin's history, the ones that turned Google fear spikes into generational buying opportunities, were global phenomena. The June 2022 spike that preceded Bitcoin's cycle low near $16,000 was worldwide. The current one is not.
What Happened the Last Three Times
The historical record for "Bitcoin going to zero" search spikes is short but consistent:
May 2021: Google Trends hit a local peak as Bitcoin crashed from $64,000 to $30,000 during China's mining ban. Within five months, BTC rallied to a new all-time high of $69,000.
June 2022: Searches spiked after the Terra/Luna collapse and Celsius/Three Arrows Capital contagion dragged Bitcoin below $20,000. This marked the cycle bottom. Bitcoin traded above $100,000 within two years.
December 2022: A secondary spike following the FTX bankruptcy. Bitcoin was near $16,500. It never revisited that level.
In all three cases, peak "Bitcoin to zero" searches coincided with local or cycle bottoms that preceded major rallies. The pattern looks clean. But there is an important caveat that makes direct comparisons unreliable.
The Google Trends Scaling Problem
Google Trends does not measure absolute search volume. It measures relative interest on a 0-to-100 scale, where 100 represents the peak for the selected time range. Bitcoin's user base in February 2026 is vastly larger than it was in June 2022. More people hold Bitcoin through spot ETFs, more retail brokerages offer exposure, and more media coverage exists.
A score of 100 today could represent fewer absolute searches than a score of 60 in 2022 relative to the total Bitcoin-aware population. Alternatively, it could represent far more. There is no way to know from the public data alone. This methodological limitation weakens confidence in the "searches equal bottom" framework as a standalone indicator.
The Fear and Greed Index Tells Its Own Story
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropping to 5 is genuinely unprecedented. The index, which aggregates volatility, market momentum, social media sentiment, surveys, Bitcoin dominance, and Google Trends data, has never been this low. For context, it hit 6 during the FTX collapse in November 2022 and 10 during the Terra/Luna crash in June 2022.
A reading of 5 means that every input the index tracks is flashing maximum fear simultaneously. Historically, readings below 10 have preceded strong recoveries. But "historically" covers a relatively short period, and the sample size of sub-10 readings is tiny.
The current drawdown, 46 percent from the October high, is severe but not unprecedented within bull market cycles. Bitcoin experienced a 53 percent drawdown in 2021 before rallying to new highs. The question is whether the current macro environment, with tariff uncertainty and hawkish Fed signals creating headwinds that did not exist in prior cycles, changes the playbook.
Institutional Buyers Are Not Waiting for Confirmation
While retail searches for Bitcoin's demise hit records, institutional behavior tells a different story. MicroStrategy continues to accumulate Bitcoin aggressively, with its corporate treasury now exceeding $47 billion in BTC holdings. This creates what analysts describe as "a powerful, bottom-up liquidity signal" that contrasts sharply with the retail doomsday narrative.
However, the ETF complex has been bleeding. Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows on every trading day during the worst week of 2026, and the broader pattern of retail accumulating while whales distribute adds another layer of complexity. The smart money is not uniformly bullish.
On-chain data from multiple analytics platforms suggests that a definitive capitulation event, the kind marked by heavy realized losses across the network, has not yet occurred. The absence of this pattern means selling pressure may not be exhausted, even as sentiment indicators scream "buy."
What This Means for Crypto Card Holders and DeFi Users
For holders using crypto cards to spend their Bitcoin or stablecoin balances, extreme fear environments create practical considerations beyond portfolio strategy. Card top-up timing matters: converting BTC to a stablecoin balance during a -46 percent drawdown locks in losses. Those holding stablecoin-funded cards avoid this problem entirely, as their spending power is unaffected by BTC price action.
The broader lesson from every previous "Bitcoin to zero" search spike is that the people Googling the phrase were wrong. Bitcoin did not go to zero in 2021, 2022, or 2023. But "not going to zero" and "bottoming right now" are very different statements. The signal this time is muddier because US-only fear, a historically low but untested Fear and Greed reading, and unresolved macro headwinds all introduce variables that did not exist in prior episodes.
FAQ
Has Bitcoin ever actually gone to zero? No. Bitcoin has never gone to zero in its 17-year history. The lowest price since becoming widely traded was approximately $3,100 in December 2018. Every "Bitcoin to zero" narrative has eventually been followed by new all-time highs, though the timeline for recovery has ranged from months to years.
Is the Fear and Greed Index at 5 a reliable buy signal? The index has never been this low before, so there is no direct historical precedent. Previous readings below 10, during the Terra/Luna collapse (10) and FTX implosion (6), preceded strong recoveries within 6-12 months. However, the sample size is extremely small, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Why are US searches spiking while global searches are not? US-specific macro catalysts, including tariff escalation under Section 122, tensions with Iran, and a broader risk-off rotation in domestic equities, have created outsized fear among American retail investors. International holders appear less affected by these US-centric narratives.
Should I buy Bitcoin because everyone is searching "Bitcoin to zero"? Contrarian indicators have historically been useful at extremes, but they are not timing tools. The previous three spikes in this search term coincided with good long-term entry points, but short-term price action remained volatile for weeks or months after each spike. This is not financial advice.
Overview
US Google searches for "Bitcoin going to zero" hit a perfect 100 on Google Trends in mid-February 2026, the highest reading ever recorded. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index simultaneously dropped to 5, also a historic low. While previous spikes in this search term (2021, 2022) coincided with cycle bottoms that preceded major rallies, the current signal is complicated by three factors: the fear is concentrated in the US rather than global, Google Trends scaling makes cross-era comparisons unreliable, and on-chain data shows no definitive capitulation event. Institutional buyers like MicroStrategy continue accumulating, but ETF outflows and unresolved macro headwinds from tariffs and hawkish Fed policy create a more ambiguous setup than past episodes.
Recommended Reading
- Bitcoin Logs Its Worst Start to a Year in History as ETF Outflows Hit Every Trading Day This Week
- Retail Bitcoin Holders Hit Their Highest Supply Share Since June 2024 as Whales Dump 81,000 BTC in Eight Days
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