The metric that separates conviction from capitulation just flipped red. Glassnode data published on February 17 shows the 7-day exponential moving average of Bitcoin's Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) falling below 1.0 for the first time since May 2022, the month the LUNA-UST implosion wiped $40 billion from the market. As of the time of writing, BTC is trading near $68,880, well below the $100,000 highs that defined late 2025, and the on-chain data suggests that even the market's most patient participants are starting to crack.
The Metric That Tracks Diamond Hands Breaking
SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, measures whether Bitcoin being moved on-chain is sold at a profit or a loss. A value above 1 means the coins being spent were acquired at a lower price, so the seller is booking a gain. Below 1, sellers are realizing losses. The long-term holder variant specifically filters for coins held longer than 155 days, isolating the behavior of investors who have historically served as the market's last line of defense during downturns.
When LTH SOPR dips below 1, it means the cohort that weathered every dip, every FUD cycle, and every exchange collapse is now capitulating. Glassnode described the current reading as "a rare shift in conviction typically seen in deeper stages of bear markets", drawing a direct line to the May 2022 LUNA collapse that preceded months of further pain before the cycle bottom arrived.
220,000 BTC Shed by Whales in 12 Months
The SOPR signal does not exist in isolation. Addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, the whale cohort that often dictates market direction, have reduced their positions by roughly 220,000 BTC over the past year. At current prices, that represents approximately $15.1 billion in selling pressure distributed across 12 months.
What makes February's data particularly concerning is the weakness of accumulation on the other side. During the FTX collapse in November 2022 and the LUNA crash before it, long-term holders aggressively bought the dip, absorbing supply from panicking short-term speculators. This time, the buying conviction appears muted. Glassnode's data shows long-term holder accumulation during the recent decline trailing the pace set during those prior capitulation events, suggesting diminished confidence even among the most battle-tested cohort.
Macro Headwinds Keep the Pressure On
The on-chain distress coincides with a stubbornly hawkish macro environment. The U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January, and inflation remains at 2.4%, both figures that have dampened expectations for imminent rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool currently prices a 90% probability of rates staying unchanged at the March FOMC meeting. Without rate cuts to inject liquidity and compress real yields, risk assets like Bitcoin face persistent headwinds.
Bitcoin touched $62,800 on February 6 before recovering to the current $68,880 range, but Glassnode has flagged $54,000 as the next critical support level if the selling intensifies. That level aligns with realized price models for the 1-to-2-year holder cohort, meaning a drop there would push an even larger segment of long-term holders into unrealized losses.
What This Means for Holders and Crypto Card Users
For anyone holding BTC on an exchange or through a crypto card platform, the SOPR signal is a stress test for conviction. Cards that rely on crypto collateral, like the Nexo card which lets users borrow against their Bitcoin rather than sell it, become especially relevant in this environment. If BTC drops further toward $54,000, collateral ratios tighten, and holders face the choice of adding more collateral or having positions partially liquidated.
Staking-based cards face a different kind of pressure. Platforms like Crypto.com require CRO token staking for premium tier benefits. When the broader market sells off, the staked token's value drops with it, potentially wiping out months of cashback rewards in unrealized losses. The same dynamic applies to any card ecosystem where benefits are tied to holding a volatile asset.
For users of self-custody cards that spend directly from a wallet, the impact is more psychological than structural. No one is forcing a liquidation, but watching a portfolio decline from recent highs tests the same conviction that the SOPR metric is now measuring on-chain.
Capitulation Is Not the Bottom, It Is the Setup
History offers a nuanced read. LTH SOPR falling below 1 has historically aligned with the later stages of bear markets, not the exact bottom, but the structural exhaustion of sellers that precedes one. After the May 2022 LUNA crash, Bitcoin continued to decline for another five months before finding its cycle low near $15,500 in November 2022. Capitulation marked the phase where weak hands finished transferring their coins to stronger ones, setting up the supply compression that eventually powered the next rally.
Sean McNulty of FalconX offers a more bullish contrarian read, arguing that $60,000 will likely hold as the cycle floor due to "healthy buying flows" and a "massive wall of buyers" at that level. If he is right, the current SOPR reset represents a shakeout within a broader bull market rather than the onset of a prolonged bear phase.
The divergence between these views is itself informative. When long-term holder metrics flash distress signals that rhyme with LUNA-era capitulation, but prominent traders call for a floor, the market is in a regime of maximum uncertainty, exactly the kind of environment where fortunes are made or destroyed depending on timing and conviction.
FAQ
What is Bitcoin's Long-Term Holder SOPR? SOPR stands for Spent Output Profit Ratio. The long-term holder variant measures whether Bitcoin held for more than 155 days is being sold at a profit (above 1) or a loss (below 1). It is tracked by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode and is widely considered one of the most reliable indicators of market cycle positioning.
Why is the LUNA crash comparison significant? The last time LTH SOPR fell below 1 was May 2022, during the LUNA-UST collapse that wiped $40 billion from the market. That event marked the beginning of a capitulation phase that lasted several months before Bitcoin found its cycle bottom. The comparison suggests the current selling pressure is historically severe.
Does SOPR below 1 mean Bitcoin will keep falling? Not necessarily. SOPR below 1 signals that long-term holders are selling at a loss, which historically occurs in the later stages of downtrends rather than at the exact bottom. It indicates structural seller exhaustion, which is a precondition for a bottom, but the timeline between capitulation and recovery can span weeks to months.
What is the next support level for Bitcoin? Glassnode has identified $54,000 as the next critical support, based on realized price models for the 1-to-2-year holder cohort. Below that, the $48,000-$50,000 range represents the aggregate cost basis of all long-term holders.
Overview
Bitcoin's long-term holder SOPR has fallen below 1 for the first time since the May 2022 LUNA crash, meaning investors who held BTC for over 155 days are now selling at a loss. Glassnode describes this as a rare shift in conviction typically seen in deeper bear market phases, while whale addresses have shed 220,000 BTC over the past year. With BTC trading near $68,880 and macro headwinds from sticky inflation keeping rate cuts off the table, the on-chain data paints a picture of capitulation, not collapse. Historically, this phase precedes cycle bottoms rather than marking them, setting up the supply compression that eventually fuels recovery. The key level to watch is $54,000, where realized price models suggest the next wave of long-term holders would tip into unrealized losses.
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