27 Altcoins, $180 Million, One Week
The crypto market faces a concentrated wave of token unlocks this week, with over $180 million in previously locked tokens becoming available to holders between February 16 and 22. The schedule, flagged by Cointelegraph and tracked by DefiLlama, spans 27 different projects and includes two unlocks north of $40 million each.
Aster leads the week with a $57.9 million cliff unlock on Monday, followed by LayerZero's $46.2 million release on Thursday. Together, those two events account for more than half the week's total dilution.
Token unlocks are not inherently bearish. Tokens flow to team members, early investors, and ecosystem contributors who may hold rather than sell. But when unlock sizes reach double digits relative to circulating supply, historical data shows that sell pressure tends to spike in the 48 hours following the event, particularly for tokens without strong demand-side catalysts.
Aster's $58M Monday Cliff Splits Analysts
The single largest unlock of the week belongs to Aster, the privacy-focused Layer 1 that is targeting a March 2026 mainnet launch. Approximately 78.41 million ASTER tokens, valued at roughly $57.9 million, become available on February 17.
The analyst community is divided on what happens next. CryptoAnu, via CoinMarketCap's research forum, pegs the release at 0.98% of total supply, a manageable dilution for a project with mainnet momentum. MonoCoin disagrees sharply, citing a figure of 164.67 million tokens worth $115 million and flagging that staking, which could have given holders a reason to lock tokens post-unlock, has been pushed to Q2.
The discrepancy matters. If the smaller figure is correct, Aster's March mainnet narrative likely absorbs the sell pressure. If MonoCoin's analysis holds, the unlock represents 6.6% of circulating supply hitting the market with no staking sink to offset it. Traders should verify which figure their exchange's data provider uses before positioning around the event.
LayerZero Adds $46M in Core Contributor Tokens
LayerZero's February 20 unlock releases approximately 25.7 million ZRO tokens to core contributors, adding roughly 12% to the token's market capitalization. At current prices, the release is valued at $46.2 million.
Unlike cliff unlocks that arrive as a single lump sum, LayerZero follows a predictable multi-year vesting schedule for strategic partners and core contributors. This transparency means the market has had months to price in the event. Still, contributor unlocks carry a different behavioral profile than community airdrops. Contributors are more likely to sell in structured OTC blocks or through TWAP algorithms, creating steady downward pressure over days rather than a single dump.
LayerZero's cross-chain messaging protocol underpins interoperability infrastructure that several DeFi applications rely on, including bridges that crypto card providers use for multi-chain top-ups. The protocol's fundamentals remain intact regardless of short-term token supply dynamics.
The STBL Outlier: 57% of Supply in a Single Day
While the dollar amounts for Aster and LayerZero dominate the headlines, the most extreme unlock by percentage belongs to STBL, which releases 57.68% of its circulating supply on February 16. The dollar value is a comparatively modest $11.34 million, but unlocking more than half of a token's supply in one event fundamentally reprices the asset's scarcity assumptions.
Projects with extreme unlock-to-supply ratios historically see 15-30% price declines in the week following the event, particularly when trading volume is thin. STBL holders should assess liquidity depth on their exchange before the unlock lands.
Day-by-Day Breakdown: Where the Pressure Lands
The week's unlocks cluster around three pressure points:
Sunday, February 16: Arbitrum ($10.9M, 1.61% of supply), STBL ($11.3M, 57.68%), Solayer LAYER ($2.3M, 12.41%), RollX ($4.0M, 27.78%), GoPlus GPS ($2.0M, 3.72%), Drift Protocol ($1.2M, 2.50%), Valve ($3.3M, 7.21%)
Monday-Tuesday, February 17-18: Aster ($57.9M, 3.17%), Pudgy Penguins PENGU ($5.2M, 1.12%), YZY ($20.6M), ApeCoin ($1.9M, 1.95%), ZKsync ($3.7M, 1.97%), Lombard BARD ($8.1M, 4.58%)
Thursday-Friday, February 20-21: LayerZero ($46.2M, 12.18%), Kaito ($10.6M, 10.75%), Plume ($2.6M, 4.99%), Alpine F1 ($2.9M, 34.97%)
The mid-week gap between Tuesday and Thursday could offer a brief reprieve before the second wave arrives.
What Card Holders and DeFi Users Should Watch
Token unlocks ripple beyond the tokens themselves. Arbitrum's $10.9 million unlock affects the L2 ecosystem that powers low-cost transactions for multiple crypto spending applications. ARB's 1.61% dilution is modest, but concentrated selling by early investors could temporarily widen spreads on Arbitrum-native DeFi protocols.
The PENGU unlock on February 17 is particularly relevant for KAST card holders. KAST's partnership with Pudgy Penguins offers 6-12% cashback across its Pengu card lineup, and PENGU token dynamics directly influence the value proposition of those rewards. The $5.2 million unlock represents just 1.12% of supply, so the impact should be limited, but holders earning PENGU cashback should track whether the unlock triggers any temporary price dip.
For users holding tokens that power staking rewards on their crypto cards, unlock weeks are a reminder that token-denominated cashback is only as valuable as the token's price. A 3% cashback rate paid in a token that drops 15% from unlock pressure is effectively a 12% loss in dollar terms. Cards paying in stablecoins or directly in BTC/ETH avoid this dynamic entirely.
FAQ
What is a token unlock? A token unlock is a scheduled event where previously locked tokens become available to their holders, typically early investors, team members, or ecosystem contributors. The tokens were locked during the project's launch to prevent immediate selling and ensure long-term alignment.
Do token unlocks always cause price drops? Not always. If demand exceeds the new supply, prices can hold or even rise. But large unlocks, especially those above 5% of circulating supply, statistically correlate with short-term price weakness in the 24-72 hours following the event.
Which unlock this week carries the highest risk? STBL's 57.68% supply unlock is the most extreme by percentage, while Aster's $57.9 million cliff is the largest by dollar value. Both carry elevated risk, but for different reasons: STBL faces a supply shock, while Aster faces uncertainty about whether mainnet excitement can offset contributor selling.
How can I track upcoming token unlocks? DefiLlama's token unlock calendar, Tokenomist, and DropsTab all provide real-time vesting schedules with dollar-value estimates and supply percentages.
Overview
Over $180 million in token unlocks are scheduled for the week of February 16-22, spread across 27 altcoins. Aster's $57.9 million cliff unlock on February 17 and LayerZero's $46.2 million core contributor release on February 20 are the two largest events. Analysts remain split on Aster's impact, with conflicting data on whether the unlock represents 0.98% or 6.6% of circulating supply. STBL's 57.68% supply unlock is the most extreme by percentage. Arbitrum, PENGU, and ZKsync are among the other notable releases. Crypto card holders earning token-denominated rewards should monitor whether unlock pressure temporarily depresses the value of their cashback tokens.
Recommended Reading
- Aster Chain Targets March for Its Privacy-First L1 Mainnet, Betting That Hidden Orders Beat Transparent Trading
- KAST Partners With Pudgy Penguins to Launch Pengu Card: 6-12% Cashback Across 170+ Countries
- zkSync's Staking Pilot Attracts 160M ZK in Its First Week, Hitting 40% of Target Before the APR Even Ramps Up
