Retail Wallets Are Accumulating While the Big Money Walks Away
Small Bitcoin holders are buying the dip harder than they have in nearly two years, and the data trail is unambiguous. Santiment's on-chain analytics show that wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC, the cohort most closely associated with retail investors, have expanded their holdings by 2.5% since Bitcoin's October peak. Their share of total supply has climbed to 0.249%, roughly 52,290 BTC, the highest reading since June 2024, according to Santiment data shared by Cointelegraph on February 21, 2026.
At the same time, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC, the whale and shark tier that historically drives sustained rallies, reduced their positions by 0.8% from the October high. Their collective network share fell to 68.04% of total supply, a nine-month low not seen since May 2025. The result is the widest retail-whale divergence Bitcoin's on-chain data has recorded since the mid-2024 consolidation phase.
Bitcoin was trading around $67,400 as of February 21, 2026, down roughly 29% from its October peak near $95,000.
81,000 BTC Dumped in Eight Days Tells a Story the Price Chart Cannot
The headline number is jarring. Large holders offloaded 81,068 BTC in just eight days during the sharpest phase of the recent drawdown, which dragged Bitcoin from around $90,000 to $65,000, a 27% decline. That selling volume from the 10-to-10,000 BTC bracket is not routine portfolio rebalancing. It is a deliberate reduction of exposure by the exact cohort whose buying power has historically been required to sustain bull markets.
Santiment's own weekly summary for the third week of February noted that these wallets dropped nearly 0.5% of total Bitcoin supply in five weeks, with the pace accelerating in late January beyond what was observed during the Q4 2025 distribution phase. Nearly 5,000 BTC moved to centralized exchanges within 15-minute intervals during peak selling windows, a pattern consistent with coordinated institutional liquidation.
Meanwhile, the mid-tier bracket of wallets holding 0.01 to 1 BTC expanded their supply share by 1.05% since October, hitting a 15-month high. Only the 1-to-10 BTC bracket, a liminal zone between retail and professional investors, shrank alongside the whales, dropping 0.49%.
The Historical Pattern Is Not Encouraging for Retail
This is where the data gets uncomfortable. Santiment has explicitly flagged this dynamic as "what historically creates bear cycles": large holders selling into retail accumulation. The pattern played out in early 2018, mid-2021, and to a lesser extent in late 2023 before a swift reversal that proved the exception rather than the rule.
The sentiment backdrop reinforces the concern. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 9 out of 100, its lowest reading since the Terra-Luna collapse in mid-2022. CryptoQuant's CEO observed that "every Bitcoin analyst is now bearish," a contrarian signal in isolation but one that carries less weight when the on-chain distribution data confirms the bearish thesis.
Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score, which ranges from 0 (distribution) to 1 (accumulation), climbed to 0.68 after the February 5 crash that sent Bitcoin toward $60,000. That is the strongest reading since late November, according to CoinDesk, but the buying is heavily concentrated in small wallets. The mid-sized 10-to-100 BTC bracket acted as the most aggressive dip buyers during the crash itself, yet the broader whale tier continued distributing into every recovery attempt.
What This Means for Anyone Holding or Spending Bitcoin
For holders using crypto cards to spend Bitcoin in daily life, the divergence has practical implications. If large holders continue distributing and the retail bid proves insufficient to absorb the supply, further downside pressure could erode the purchasing power of BTC-denominated card balances. Cardholders who maintain stablecoin balances as their primary spending layer are insulated from this risk, while those spending directly from volatile BTC holdings face the full brunt of drawdown timing.
The 30-day MVRV ratio for Bitcoin sits at -6% as of the third week of February, meaning the average trader who bought in the last month is underwater. Ethereum's 30-day MVRV is worse at -15%. Deeply negative MVRV readings mathematically reduce further downside risk, since underwater holders have less incentive to sell at a loss, but they do not guarantee a reversal. They simply indicate that the easy sellers have largely already sold.
Daily active addresses and new wallet creation are both declining continuously, per Santiment's network health data. Reduced network participation during price stabilization attempts is not the signature of a market building a durable bottom. It is the signature of a market waiting for a catalyst that has not yet arrived.
The Broader Ecosystem Needs Whales to Come Back
Bitcoin's market structure in early 2026 has been defined by institutional retreat. ETF outflows have hit every trading day since the year began, mining difficulty surged 15% in the largest single adjustment since 2021, and macro headwinds from tariff uncertainty continue to weigh on risk assets broadly.
Retail accumulation provides a floor. CoinDesk's analysis frames it clearly: small investors "can spark short-term momentum," but "rallies that stick require bigger players who are prepared to buy whatever's on offer." The last time retail hit this level of supply share, in June 2024, Bitcoin was trading around $66,000. It took another four months and a US presidential election catalyst before whales re-engaged aggressively enough to push prices above $90,000.
The question is not whether retail conviction exists. It clearly does. The question is whether this cycle's whale cohort, which now includes ETF fund managers, corporate treasuries, and sovereign wealth vehicles alongside traditional crypto-native whales, will find a reason to absorb supply at current levels or whether they will wait for lower prices that make the risk-reward profile more compelling.
For users of self-custody wallets, the divergence is a reminder that holding Bitcoin through drawdowns is a feature, not a bug, of the asset class. But it is also a reminder that conviction is not the same as a catalyst.
FAQ
What does "retail supply share" mean in Bitcoin? It refers to the percentage of total Bitcoin supply held by small wallets, typically those with less than 0.1 BTC. When retail supply share rises, it means more of Bitcoin's fixed 21 million coin supply is moving into smaller hands, usually through accumulation during price dips.
Why does whale selling matter more than retail buying? Whales and sharks (10 to 10,000 BTC wallets) collectively control over 68% of Bitcoin's total supply. Their selling decisions move markets because the volume they can deploy or withdraw dwarfs what retail can absorb in the short term. Historically, sustained rallies require large holders to stop selling and begin accumulating.
Is this a buy signal or a sell signal? Neither in isolation. Retail accumulation at whale distribution levels has preceded both bear markets (2018, mid-2021) and eventual recoveries (late 2023). The divergence flags elevated risk but does not predict direction. External catalysts, whether macro, regulatory, or institutional, typically determine the resolution.
How does this affect crypto card users? Cardholders spending BTC directly face purchasing power risk during drawdowns. Those using stablecoin-funded cards or converting to fiat before spending are unaffected by short-term volatility. The divergence is most relevant for users who hold and spend from BTC balances without a stable buffer.
Overview
Santiment on-chain data reveals that retail Bitcoin wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC have reached their highest supply share since June 2024, accumulating 2.5% more BTC since October's price peak. Simultaneously, large holders with 10 to 10,000 BTC have shed 0.8% of supply, dumping 81,068 BTC in eight days and pushing their network share to a nine-month low. The divergence, the widest since mid-2024, mirrors historical patterns that have preceded bear cycles. With the Fear and Greed Index at 9, daily active addresses declining, and ETF outflows persisting, the market needs whale re-engagement or an external catalyst to convert retail conviction into a sustained recovery.
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