Jump Trading Swaps Liquidity for Ownership in Two Prediction Giants
Jump Trading, the Chicago-based quantitative trading powerhouse, is set to earn equity stakes in both Polymarket and Kalshi through a novel arrangement that trades market-making services for ownership, according to Bloomberg. The deals mark the most significant institutional commitment to prediction markets yet, giving Jump a direct piece of a sector now valued at a combined $20 billion.
Rather than writing checks, Jump is earning its way in. The firm will provide liquidity, the lifeblood of any trading platform, in exchange for equity packages structured like venture agreements. The approach solves a critical problem for both platforms: prediction markets live and die by the depth of their order books, and Jump brings the capital and infrastructure to keep even niche contracts tradable around the clock.
Two Platforms, Two Deal Structures
The equity arrangements differ between the two platforms, reflecting their distinct regulatory and operational models.
With Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction exchange, Jump receives a fixed equity stake. The terms are straightforward: provide liquidity, earn a set ownership position. Kalshi secured $1 billion in funding in November 2025 at an $11 billion valuation, making even a small percentage stake potentially worth hundreds of millions.
The Polymarket deal is more dynamic. Jump's equity position scales based on how much trading capacity the firm provides to the platform's U.S. operations. The more liquidity Jump commits, the larger its ownership share grows. Polymarket's valuation has been estimated between $9 billion and $15 billion depending on the source and timeframe, placing it among the most valuable crypto-native platforms in the world.
Both deals represent a departure from the standard venture capital playbook. Instead of deploying cash for shares, Jump is deploying what it has in abundance: trading infrastructure, risk management systems, and the capital to sit on both sides of a market.
Why Prediction Markets Need Jump More Than Jump Needs Them
Prediction markets operate on peer-to-peer mechanics. Every contract requires a buyer and a seller, someone betting yes and someone betting no. Without deep liquidity, spreads widen, prices become unreliable, and users leave. This chicken-and-egg problem has historically limited prediction market adoption.
Jump has reportedly assigned more than 20 staffers specifically to prediction market operations, a meaningful commitment from a firm that deploys resources with surgical precision. These staffers handle everything from pricing algorithms to risk management across contracts covering Federal Reserve rate decisions, election outcomes, Super Bowl results, and crypto price movements.
Weekly trading volume across prediction platforms surged from roughly $500 million in mid-2025 to nearly $6 billion by January 2026. That growth attracts more market makers, but Jump's scale and track record in both traditional finance and crypto set it apart from smaller competitors.
The Platform Neutrality Question
Jump's deepening role raises a legitimate question: when an institutional giant consistently takes the opposite side of retail trades, does the "peer-to-peer" label still apply?
Kalshi and Polymarket market themselves as alternatives to traditional sportsbooks and centralized exchanges. The pitch is simple: trade against other users, not against the house. But a firm like Jump, armed with sophisticated algorithms and enormous capital reserves, functions more like a house than a peer. It profits from spreads, arbitrage, and informational advantages that retail participants cannot match.
This dynamic is not unique to prediction markets. Cryptocurrency exchanges, stock markets, and options platforms all depend on institutional market makers. The difference is transparency. In traditional markets, the role of market makers is well understood. In prediction markets, which are still building trust with regulators and the public, the line between infrastructure provider and counterparty deserves closer scrutiny.
What This Means for Crypto Users and DeFi
The deals signal that prediction markets are graduating from crypto novelty to institutional-grade financial infrastructure. For crypto users, this has several practical implications.
First, tighter spreads. More liquidity means better pricing on prediction contracts, whether you are hedging a position, speculating on a token launch, or betting on regulatory outcomes. Platforms with institutional liquidity tend to offer more accurate odds and faster execution.
Second, regulatory legitimacy. Jump's involvement with CFTC-regulated Kalshi suggests the firm sees a path forward for compliant prediction markets in the United States. Kalshi has already won court battles to offer election contracts, and institutional backing from a firm of Jump's stature reinforces the case that these products belong in regulated markets.
Third, the convergence of prediction markets and crypto wallets is accelerating. Trust Wallet recently launched Super Bowl prediction markets directly within its app, and Polymarket's integration with Circle's native USDC on Polygon reduced bridge risk for traders. As liquidity deepens, expect more wallet-native prediction features built on stablecoin infrastructure.
Jump's $4 Billion Cloud
It is impossible to discuss Jump Trading's expansion without acknowledging the $4 billion lawsuit from the Terraform Labs bankruptcy estate. The suit alleges Jump profited from the TerraUSD stablecoin collapse in 2022, an event that wiped out tens of billions in value across the crypto ecosystem. Jump has not publicly settled the case.
The prediction market deals may also serve a strategic purpose beyond pure profit. By embedding itself as critical infrastructure in platforms valued at billions, Jump strengthens its position as an indispensable player in crypto finance, regardless of how the Terra litigation resolves. Other major trading firms like Susquehanna International Group have made similar moves, including acquiring a majority stake in derivatives exchange LedgerX alongside Robinhood.
FAQ
How is Jump Trading earning equity in Polymarket and Kalshi? Through liquidity-for-equity arrangements. Instead of investing cash, Jump provides market-making services and trading liquidity. Kalshi offers a fixed equity stake, while Polymarket's stake scales based on the volume of liquidity Jump provides to U.S. operations.
What are Polymarket and Kalshi worth? Kalshi was valued at $11 billion after its November 2025 funding round. Polymarket's valuation has been estimated between $9 billion and $15 billion. The combined prediction market sector is valued at approximately $20 billion.
Does Jump Trading's involvement change how prediction markets work? Not mechanically, but it deepens liquidity significantly. With 20+ dedicated staffers and institutional-grade infrastructure, Jump ensures tighter spreads and more consistent pricing across contracts. The trade-off is that a major institutional player now sits on the other side of many retail trades.
Is Jump Trading still involved in crypto? Yes. Jump maintains operations across traditional equities and cryptocurrency markets, though it faces a $4 billion lawsuit related to the Terra ecosystem collapse of 2022.
Overview
Jump Trading's equity-for-liquidity deals with Polymarket and Kalshi represent a new model for how institutional players can embed themselves in crypto-native platforms without traditional cash investments. The arrangements give Jump ownership stakes in a $20 billion sector while solving the critical liquidity problem that has historically limited prediction market adoption. With more than 20 dedicated staffers, venture-style deal structures, and deepening ties to both CFTC-regulated and crypto-native platforms, Jump is positioning prediction markets as the next frontier of institutional finance. Whether this institutional presence strengthens or complicates the peer-to-peer promise of prediction markets remains an open question.
Recommended Reading
- Trust Wallet Opens Super Bowl LX Prediction Markets as Wallet-Native Betting Takes Center Stage
- Polymarket Partners with Circle to Ditch Bridged USDC.e for Native USDC on Polygon
- CME Group Explores Launching Its Own Coin on a Decentralized Network as Crypto Volumes Hit $3 Trillion
